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I agree with the majority opinions and I resolved it that way.

On the "not elected" option: I say the causality is the other way around. Did he drop out because someone else got elected? No. He was not elected because he dropped out before. While "he dropped out" is not literally the same as "he is not the nominee", I claim that the description makes it sufficiently clear that it is equivalent for the sake of this question.

I don't follow how this explanation fits the resolution?

Question: "If Biden is NOT the nominee, it was because..."

The option: "someone else got elected at the DNC" (this resolved YES).

The reasoning:

On the "not elected" option: I say the causality is the other way around. Did he drop out because someone else got elected? No. He was not elected because he dropped out before.

Doesn't that explanation imply NO? "Did he drop out because someone got elected" at the DNC -> NO, "he was not elected because he dropped out before" (not because of anything that happened at the DNC). Thus, "someone else got elected at the DNC" would not be a relevant reason that Biden wasn't the nominee, (you can imagine the hypothetical world where Biden did lose the nomination at the DNC because someone else got elected there, but that clearly didn't happen, he dropped out before).

It's a subjective question on some level you have the right to resolve it as you'd like, but I figured I'd ask because the resolution you gave seems to be the opposite of your explanation here? Or If I'm now following what you mean, could you explain?

Whoa. I misclicked... 🙈 After thinking and thinking about it, I still managed to botch it. Sorry.

@mods can you fix it?

No worries!

Okay, I re-resolved it to NO

I wish I'd made side bets about this resolving in a way that makes people mad, cause the last thing @marktwse said, almost a month ago, suggests way more uncertainty on those top options than is reflected in the price.

At the end of this interview he says "although it was a great honor to be president, I think we have an obligation to do the most important thing that we can do, which is, we must defeat Trump". I think there's a clear implication that in his mind, electability versus Trump was a factor in his decision. If we think that electability and popularity are roughly the same thing, I'd say that "He quits because he is too unpopular" should resolve to Yes. (Sorry if I'm double-posting this, not sure if my previous comment was lost.) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1l5n2gy74vo

Joe Biden explains why he dropped out of White House race

The president says his candidacy would have been a "real distraction" for Democrats and that his highest priority was to defeat Donald Trump.

@marktwse Harris is the official nominee now, can this resolve?

The top four answers are all correct, and the bottom four answers are all wrong.

How is this going to resolve?

Technically, Biden can still become the nominee, so it isn't over yet. Here is are my current thoughts:

• Too unpopular? When Biden dropped out, Harris wasn't really more popular, was she?

• Health reasons? This is the "obvious, but can't say it himself" reason. The only (weak) argument against I can think of: "Age" is not really a health issue and no physician diagnosis can be referenced.

• PR plunders? The debate with Trump seems to be a clear turning point and it was a plunder.

• Someone else elected? No, if he isn't available to be elected there and he would have to re-announce to run for that.

• Death? No, that wasn't the reason.

• Sudden incident? No, the time between debate and announcement was not "sudden".

• Trump is still running, so looks like a no.

Too unpopular is the main reason, it would be really weird if that one resolved NO. He actually was slightly behind Harris in polls vs. Trump, but comparing those is not a good basis for deciding whether he was really too unpopular anyway. You can't compare polls of the presumptive nominee and current president to polls of a hypothetical nominee - the latter would be expected to get better (as they have) once she becomes the nominee.

Also, Harris's net approval is currently better than Biden's, even though it's still underwater. And it's much more malleable than his.

The only real answer is that someone else was elected at the DNC. That is exactly why he won't be the nominee.

• Too unpopular? When Biden dropped out, Harris wasn't really more popular, was she?

You are conflating the popularity of the replacement with Biden's unpopularity. Biden dropped out, ultimately, because he was convinced that he couldn't win.

• Health reasons? This is the "obvious, but can't say it himself" reason. The only (weak) argument against I can think of: "Age" is not really a health issue and no physician diagnosis can be referenced.

The medical problems that come with age, particularly mental decline, is a health issue. This was on display at the debate, which was a major factor in causing Biden to drop out.

• PR plunders? The debate with Trump seems to be a clear turning point and it was a plunder.

My only pause on this one is the use of the you ain't black comment. The debate and its aftermath were certainly blunders, deeper than PR blunders, but they turned public opinion against him.

• Someone else elected? No, if he isn't available to be elected there and he would have to re-announce to run for that.

I'm not sure how this could possibly be a NO. Ultimately, the Dnom is the person elected by delegates at the convention, and the fact that the delegates are not going to choose him is THE MOST DIRECT REASON he isn't going to the Dnom. What led the delegates to this point is another question, but as written "If Biden is NOT the democratic nominee, it was because..." in this case is because of the delegates. For this to be NO, he would have to be elected at the convention, and then die in the interim.

This was a free money bet. No way it can be NO.

• Death? No, that wasn't the reason.

If he's alive when they vote on the nominee, this is a NO.

• Sudden incident? No, the time between debate and announcement was not "sudden".

Agreed. It was a slow motion disaster.

• Trump is still running, so looks like a no.

This could be NO now, since Trump was alive when Biden quit.

The “someone else was elected at the DNC” option was meant to represent a scenario where Biden doesn’t drop out but he is challenged by someone else and they are elected.

Also, I think there is a distinction to be made between Biden’s unpopularity and electability. Biden and Kamala were both unpopular, so Biden dropping out doesn’t really change much in terms of popularity. However, Kamala is much more “electable” since she is younger and can campaign more vigorously to get voters to change their minds. She also can distance herself further from Biden’s policies that voters dislike. Honestly I can see the “too unpopular” option resolving either way.

Popularity and electability aren't the same thing, but one stems from the other. If Biden was popular, he would be electable too

I'm not really sure of the distinction between popular and electable you're trying to make. He wasn't well liked, and hence unlikely to win re-election.

"someone else elected at the convention" is the wording, and it literally can't be wrong, unless someone swapped out for Biden AFTER the convention.

Whether he publicly announced he was dropping out before the election has no bearing on how that option resolves, as it is written.

@FrederickNorris I agree with your reasoning for the first three, those should definitely resolve YES. I think it's reasonable to resolve, "Someone else elected" NO, though. Every possible situation where Biden isn't the nominee would have involved someone else being elected at the convention - that's what becoming the Democratic nominee means. The question is why Biden didn't become the nominee. Since it was already decided before the convention that he wouldn't be the nominee, it doesn't make sense to point to something that happened at the convention as the reason.

As for the distinction between popularity and electability - the former is just what proportion of people like you or dislike you, while the latter is how likely you are to win an election. Harris is more electable than Biden in large part because she can change people's perception of her to make herself more popular, whereas Biden can't. She also has the ability to run a vigorous campaign, unlike Biden. But I agree that since popularity is the main factor in electability, it doesn't make any sense to say, "He dropped out because of unelectability, not unpopularity." He dropped out because he knew he was not popular enough to win.

You're pushing at an open door with me if you suggest the option was poorly worded, but for how it IS worded, it must resolve yes. He is not the Dnom because someone else was picked at the DNC.

I mean, if we really want to get pedantic Kamala Harris is actually most likely going to be chosen as the Democratic nominee before the DNC through virtual roll call: https://manifold.markets/BobJones/will-kamala-harris-be-nominated-via. So it's not really true that someone else got elected at the DNC, they got elected before the DNC!

I think that's a special session of the DNC, but I take your point!

1. Someone else got elected is now true. This option said nothing about Biden having to still be running.
2. >"no physician diagnosis can be referenced." well they are always confidential so that shouldn't count against that option. Health (now or four years ahead) seems highly likely if we want the underlying cause rather than the proximate cause of Kamala being elected because Biden dropped out. Maybe saying Biden isn't nominee because he dropped out doesn't really tell us anything about why. So I think we want underlying reason more than proximate cause but getting this confirmed might be useful to help understand how it should resolve.

But main reason for posting here is the question
3. How does it resolve? Will it be
A) a single option resolve yes at 100% or
B) More than one option resolve yes at 100% or
C) Multiple options resolve at % resolutions? If so do they add to 100% or some other defined number or is it completely undefined and up to market creator?

Non-American here, have the primaries not already ended so this is an impossibility?

I agree, so I resolved this one.