Lets explore why/how Trump might not be the republican nominee as well
(format slightly different)

This market is a mess but at least it served to collect options. Here is another try:

Biden will be the Democratic Nominee or...

@FrederickNorris Careful! This reads "Biden not the nominee, it was because ... someone else elected". Just because someone else gets elected does not resolve this YES. It must be the explicit reason he is not the nominee.

@marktwse I expect this will N/A, so I'm just having fun.

@FrederickNorris Then enjoy the party. 🥳

Reminder not to take this market too seriously, it's mostly just a poll where you pay for votes with mana that will eventually be returned to you. Please write to your local representative and tell them that we need an infrastructure to enable functional conditional markets that tackle the opportunity cost problem!

I would only resolve this YES if Biden states this an explicit reason. For example, if Trump quits and then Biden quits citing only health reasons, this would be NO.

But not for health reasons?

@Joshua It could both be true. Since the probabilities are different not necessarily though.

Gotcha, so that's just any time before the DNC, as opposed to a last minute DNC switcheroo?

I think a last minute switcheroo is basically inconceivable, people would rightfully decry it as totally undemocratic for the nominee to get chosen in a smoke filled room. So it's not even a smart strategic play if Biden thinks he's going to lose. At best they could do a last minute VP-swap, because Harris doesn't poll well.

@Joshua Good point. On the other hand, not only the republicans might do crazy things.

Now I've made a market inspired by your market inspired by my market:

@Joshua That is how inspiration works all the way down. 🤣

@Joshua Should say health reason other than death.

@FrederickNorris Valid point. I changed it.