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Resolves NA if Joe Biden is the nominee. This is quite likely, so don't expect to profit here. /NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Prediction markets have very different opinions about Biden's chances: /Joshua/why-do-realmoney-markets-have-biden
Let's explore what might stop him.
Resolving after the Democratic National Convention.
Related questions
@marktwse if Biden drops out will you resolve based on his stated reason or the true reasons (if they seem obvious)?
Tough. I cannot think of a clear definition. For example, he could state multiple reasons. Also, "obvious" is a very subjective term.
I'll sell my shares to avoid that bias at last. I have a lot of NO shares in "someone else got elected at the DNC". If I simply sell them it moves the market a lot, so I set up a limit order. Would be nice if somebody takes it.
@FrederickNorris Careful! This reads "Biden not the nominee, it was because ... someone else elected". Just because someone else gets elected does not resolve this YES. It must be the explicit reason he is not the nominee.
Reminder not to take this market too seriously, it's mostly just a poll where you pay for votes with mana that will eventually be returned to you. Please write to your local representative and tell them that we need an infrastructure to enable functional conditional markets that tackle the opportunity cost problem!
Gotcha, so that's just any time before the DNC, as opposed to a last minute DNC switcheroo?
I think a last minute switcheroo is basically inconceivable, people would rightfully decry it as totally undemocratic for the nominee to get chosen in a smoke filled room. So it's not even a smart strategic play if Biden thinks he's going to lose. At best they could do a last minute VP-swap, because Harris doesn't poll well.