2k
Aug 22
65%
he quits for health reasons (other than death)
63%
A sudden incident or announcement (manifold odds drop >70% in one hour)
43%
he died
30%
he quits the race during primaries
29%
He quits because he is too unpopular
27%
someone else got elected at the DNC
11%
He makes a series of huge PR blunders that ruin his electability (think the "you ain't black" comment)
5%
Trump can’t or isn’t running for president

Resolves NA if Joe Biden is the nominee. This is quite likely, so don't expect to profit here. /NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

Prediction markets have very different opinions about Biden's chances: /Joshua/why-do-realmoney-markets-have-biden

Let's explore what might stop him.

Resolving after the Democratic National Convention.

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Lets explore why/how Trump might not be the republican nominee as well
(format slightly different)

This market is a mess but at least it served to collect options. Here is another try:

Biden will be the Democratic Nominee or...

boughtṀ250someone else got ele... YES

@FrederickNorris Careful! This reads "Biden not the nominee, it was because ... someone else elected". Just because someone else gets elected does not resolve this YES. It must be the explicit reason he is not the nominee.

bought Ṁ250 of someone else got ele... YES

@marktwse I expect this will N/A, so I'm just having fun.

@FrederickNorris Then enjoy the party. 🥳

Reminder not to take this market too seriously, it's mostly just a poll where you pay for votes with mana that will eventually be returned to you. Please write to your local representative and tell them that we need an infrastructure to enable functional conditional markets that tackle the opportunity cost problem!

Trump can’t or isn’t running for president

I would only resolve this YES if Biden states this an explicit reason. For example, if Trump quits and then Biden quits citing only health reasons, this would be NO.

he quits the race during primaries

But not for health reasons?

bought Ṁ10 of he quits the race du... NO

@Joshua It could both be true. Since the probabilities are different not necessarily though.

bought Ṁ10 of he quits the race du... YES

Gotcha, so that's just any time before the DNC, as opposed to a last minute DNC switcheroo?

I think a last minute switcheroo is basically inconceivable, people would rightfully decry it as totally undemocratic for the nominee to get chosen in a smoke filled room. So it's not even a smart strategic play if Biden thinks he's going to lose. At best they could do a last minute VP-swap, because Harris doesn't poll well.

@Joshua Good point. On the other hand, not only the republicans might do crazy things.

Now I've made a market inspired by your market inspired by my market:

bought Ṁ10 of Trump can’t or isn’t... NO

@Joshua That is how inspiration works all the way down. 🤣

@Joshua Should say health reason other than death.

@FrederickNorris Valid point. I changed it.

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