If Biden is NOT the democratic nominee, it was because...
108
2kṀ22kresolved Aug 25
Resolved
YESHe makes a series of huge PR blunders that ruin his electability (think the "you ain't black" comment)
Resolved
YEShe quits for health reasons (other than death)
Resolved
YESHe quits because he is too unpopular
Resolved
NOhe quits the race during primaries
Resolved
NOsomeone else got elected at the DNC
Resolved
NOhe died
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NOTrump can’t or isn’t running for president
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NOA sudden incident or announcement (manifold odds drop >70% in one hour)
Resolves NA if Joe Biden is the nominee. This is quite likely, so don't expect to profit here. /NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Prediction markets have very different opinions about Biden's chances: /Joshua/why-do-realmoney-markets-have-biden
Let's explore what might stop him.
Resolving after the Democratic National Convention.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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