Since Russia did not extend the wheat deal with Ukraine, the wheat price is rising.
For a proxy, FOA tracks domestic food prices like wholesale wheat in South Africa:
There was a peak of 50cent/kg in May 2022.
Resolves YES if the price of wholesale wheat in South Africa, as tracked by FOA, reaches this peak again before 2024-07-01.
Resolves NO if the price stays below the peak. Also NO if FOA stops tracking the price (beyond a temporary outage).
Related questions
@marktwse you'll want to extend this market's close date to mid 2024, it's currently set to end of 2023.
@gupe You think that will make a difference? I care mostly about the peak not so much about the currency. The "intent" of the question is about hungry people in Africa.
Anyways, I found the options again to make it show the right prices. We're at
USD 0,32 currently.
@marketwise I agree that rising prices are, of course, incredibly significant for the welfare of millions of people. I just wanted to clarify the resolution criteria for this market, in case it wasn't as obvious to others that may wish to participate in it.
As an aside, South Africa's ever-weakening exchange rate will suppress the nominal value of wheat in terms of US Dollars, obscuring some of the rise in real costs of wheat in the country (thus understating the impact of a rising price for locals).
