Will Italy be eliminated second?

resolved Sep 24

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In webdiplomacy game 713830, Austria is essentially ensured to be eliminated first with only one center remaining and the player left. The second lowest country to survive currently is Italy at 8%. Will it be next?

Resolves YES if Italy is eliminated.

Resolves NO when two countries are defeated but Italy still exists or when the game ends.

Close date might be adjusted for game end.

Get Ṁ500 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Marktweise	Ṁ171
2	Lasse Rasinen	Ṁ135
3	Joachim Breitner	Ṁ5

6 Comments

8 Positions

96 Trades

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Marktweisebought Ṁ1,000 ofNO

Antti Rasinen

@marktweise Nice trade

1 reply

Marktweisepredicted NO

@AnttiRasinen speed beats precognition quite often 🤠

Marktweisesold Ṁ28 of NO

Very interesting turn now. Both, Italy and Germany, could be defeated but there is so much going on around them that priorities could be elsewhere.

Lasse Rasinen

What happens if there's a double-elimination?

1 reply

Marktweisesold Ṁ73 of NO

@LasseRasinen Hm, I’m tending towards YES. Germany and Italy would both be “second”. Can’t think of a good tiebreaker to declare only one as “second”.

Marktweisebought Ṁ0 of NO

There is actually a solid chance that Germany is defeated before Italy.

Lasse Rasinen sold Ṁ297 NO from 0.9% to 1.1%

Lasse Rasinen bought Ṁ580 NO from 1.4% to 0.9%

Marktweise bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 7% to 1.4%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ8 YES at 7% (cancelled) 🤖

Anthony Peterson bought Ṁ160 NO from 10% to 6%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 10% (cancelled) 🤖

Anthony Peterson sold Ṁ10 YES from 12% to 9%

Antti Rasinen bought Ṁ30 NO from 13% to 12%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 13% (cancelled) 🤖

Lasse Rasinen bought Ṁ210 NO from 25% to 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 25% (cancelled) 🤖

Antti Rasinen sold Ṁ8 YES from 26% to 22%

Marktweise bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 YES at 27% (cancelled) 🤖

Marktweise bought Ṁ50 NO from 35% to 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 35% (cancelled) 🤖

Anthony Peterson sold Ṁ17 YES from 38% to 31%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled) 🤖

Anthony Peterson sold Ṁ19 YES from 43% to 35%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 43% (cancelled) 🤖

Anthony Peterson sold Ṁ8 YES from 45% to 42%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 45% (cancelled) 🤖

Marktweise sold Ṁ28 NO from 39% to 47%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 39% (cancelled) 🤖

Lasse Rasinen bought Ṁ30 NO from 45% to 37%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 45% (cancelled) 🤖

Marktweise sold Ṁ34 NO from 37% to 47%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 37% (cancelled) 🤖

Lasse Rasinen bought Ṁ90 NO from 59% to 30%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 59% (cancelled) 🤖

Marktweise bought Ṁ20 NO from 68% to 58%

Shump bought Ṁ9 YES from 65% to 68%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 65% (cancelled) 🤖

Shump bought Ṁ70 YES from 40% to 70%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 40% (cancelled) 🤖

Marktweise sold Ṁ31 NO from 32% to 42%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 32% (cancelled) 🤖

Marktweise sold Ṁ73 NO from 20% to 34%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ9 YES at 20% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 18% (cancelled) 🤖

Antti Rasinen sold Ṁ9 YES from 21% to 17%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 21% (cancelled) 🤖

Antti Rasinen sold Ṁ11 YES from 25% to 19%

NiciusBotBot created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 23% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 25% (cancelled) 🤖

Antti Rasinen sold Ṁ27 YES from 35% to 21%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ14 YES at 35% (cancelled) 🤖

NiciusBotBot created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 23% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ29/Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

Antti Rasinen sold Ṁ105 YES from 66% to 15%

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