Germany's GDP in 2023?
29
559
1.6K
Feb 25
52%
4.5-4.6
39%
4.4-4.5
2%
4.3-4.4
2%Other
1.3%
4.2-4.3
1.1%
4.0-4.1

Germany's GDP in 2022 was 4.07 Trillion Dollar according to the Worldbank:

Resolves to the range the Worldbank publishes for 2023 in Trillion Dollars. Lower boundary included. Upper boundary excluded.

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bought Ṁ10 4.5-4.6 YES

Not World bank but
The official estimate for Germany's GDP was $4.509 trillion at the end of 2023 in puchasing power partity terms.
https://www.worldeconomics.com/Country-Size/Germany.aspx#:~:text=Germany's%20Gross%20Domestic%20Product%20(GDP)&text=The%20official%20estimate%20for%20Germany's,in%20puchasing%20power%20partity%20terms.

(You would think they should know how to spell purchasing 🤣 )

bought Ṁ50 of 4.5-4.6 YES

Preliminary DeStatis numbers have the GDP at 4.121 Trillion € ~4.512 Trillion $. Better estimate to be released on January 30th, detailed results on Feb 23rd.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/Tables/gdp-bubbles.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/01/PE24_019_811.html

bought Ṁ1 of Other YES

@Gideon37 Eur/USD at end of year was 1.1036

Will they use that rate to convert?
=4.458 ? still same bracket but maybe the other looks more attractive this way.
Sorry transposition error, the calc comes to 4.548

@ChristopherRandles That is indeed an important question. DeStatis usually publishes € numbers. I guess it depends on @marktwse‘s resolution then.

@ChristopherRandles Also you probably meant to write 4.548, right? Was confused why you were saying same bracket.

bought Ṁ250 of 4.2-4.3 NO

@Gideon37 Fixed post, thanks and sorry for error and confusion. There might be other ways it could be done eg Jan GDP at end Jan rate Feb GDP at end Feb rate ...

@ChristopherRandles Resolves according to WorldBank not Destatis. That was probably not a great choice, but that is what I wrote in the description. I'll extend the close date into February.

A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one

bought Ṁ100 of 4.1-4.2 NO

When you say upper boundary excluded, does that mean over 4.5 trillion isn't included in the other category?

@SoniaAlbrecht 4.5 is the upper boundary of "4.4-4.5" and thus excluded. It resolves to "Other".

I just created "4.5-4.6". Maybe that is a little clearer. Now 4.5 resolves to this new answer, of course.

Destatis plans to publish inflation numbers on January 16. Maybe they will also publish GDP data at that date.

bought Ṁ10 of 4.3-4.4 YES

Fun question. Seems like 3 aspects of this:
1 real GDP growth - Expectation seems to be 0.1% contraction
2 Inflation 3.3% expectation
3 Conversion of GDP from Euro to Dollars. Euro possibly worth more $ through 2023 than through 2022 maybe by a couple of % but really unsure of this one - is it exchanged throughout year or just at rate at end of year, in which case 1.1/1.07 ?

-0.1+3.3+3=6.2%
4.08 plus 6.2% = ~4.33

So I might put $4.3-4.4T as my most likely range but suspect I could be wrong about lots here so not betting much.

sold Ṁ10 of 4.3-4.4 YES

@ChristopherRandles Ah thought I was doing something or several wrong.
Inflation +5.9% on an annual average in 2023 compared with 2022 (provisional)

That makes more sense making 4.4-4.5 the most likely range.

bought Ṁ100 of Other YES

Given that the World Bank figures are in current US$, 0% growth in real-€ terms pretty much guarantees 4.3+ trillion 2023-US$. Inflation FTW. (Less than 4.3 trillion 2023-US$ for 4+ trillion 2023-€ implies an exchange rate of less than 1.075 2023-US$ per 2023-€.)

@Yorwba Added two more steps up to 4.5 for you.

sold Ṁ39 of Other YES

@marketwise Thanks! Though now I've realized I don't understand how splitting new answers out of "other" works. How did "4.3-4.4" and "4.4-4.5" end up with different probabilities despite apparently identical positions? Did you get to decide on a ratio for the split?

@Yorwba I'm not sure either. I decided nothing. Just payed a 25M per answer for additional liquidity.

A difference in probabilities makes sense though. When adding the second answer, there is already the first answer taking some percentage points.

@marketwise After spending way too long on this question, I'm now convinced that:

1. adding new answers one-by-one cannot ensure they all have the same probability without potentially messing with the probabilities of earlier answers.

2. the procedure for calculating the probabilities after adding an answer is very complicated: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/3c2fb4ad26ac509452c673896a551671198bfdd9/backend/api/src/create-answer-cpmm.ts#L186C1-L186C1

bought Ṁ20 of Other NO

OECD predicts 0% growth: