The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown by the end of 2024 for any amount of time?
Additional clarification by Manifold admins: "Any amount of time" includes a technical shutdown in the situation where the current president does not sign by the applicable deadline needed to extend funding. If only a portion of the government is unfunded and shut down this will still resolve to yes.
1,000
3.00
@Predictor this is why when I make markets I try to include tons of stuff in the market description to clarify edge cases! I never understand these markets with 3 lines of text in the description, but...
Regardless, the government WILL LITERALLY shut down at midnight if the president hasn't signed the bill by then. So I don't understand the ambiguity, even if it's not a "serious" shutdown, and even if most departments operate on the understanding that the bill WILL be signed by tomorrow morning.
"The public is unlikely to notice a brief lapse in government funding during a weekend."
In case you need a mainstream news source to clarify, lol.
Would be interesting if you guys resolved this one differently https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-094b79ec1d06
Temporary funding lapses aren't even listed as government shutdowns on the wikipedia page Marcus linked: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States
@MichaelWheatley Polymarket is adjudicating it this way and ppl are arbitraging between this site and that one. It would seem unnecessarily cruel to resolve this in a different way than every other prediction market site! It’s on the fine print on those sites as well!
@MichaelWheatley the page clearly explains
This list includes only major funding gaps which led to actual employee furloughs within federal departments of the US government
So it doesn't say whether or not a "minor" funding gap is a shutdown - I think they very carefully worded it to not say one way or another. If you follow the links, theres one that says that multiple media outlets did report it as a shutdown when that happened (and of course Wikipedia just says that the media says, they don't take their own position)
@benshindel Kalshi would resolve it NO. Polymarket would resolve it YES. So it's not consistent across sites!
@benshindel for some reason it appeared only after I posted my comment. FWIW I think that’s wrong. I haven’t found any credible source suggesting that if Congress passes the bill before the deadline a shutdown would still occur if Biden signs it past the deadline. Like, literally no one is considering this possibility, which is insane too, so I don’t know what to think, but Manifold cannot unilaterally choose to call a shutdown what the rest of the world calls ‘averting a shutdown’.
@NicoDelon I mean, technically the gov will shutdown for like 5 minutes or whatever! It’s probably relevant to only a handful of gov employees but it will happen!
@NicoDelon laws are enacted only when the president signs. I'm 99% confident that if Biden doesn't sign for say 5 days, a shutdown would in fact take place. And there's no way for his post-midnight signature to retroactively make the shutdown not happen.
@NicoDelon look man, this is just how it works! Idk what to say but this is how bills work. They must be signed by the president! Until they are, they are not enacted!
@jack I understand that but there’s some literal daylight between five minutes and five days. I’m not saying it can’t happen, I’m just befuddled it’s so hard to find a clear answer.
@benshindel Just out of curiosity are there any federal agencies that actually undertake any practical changes in the case of technical shutdown? Maybe some employees in embassies where the work hour overlaps with midnight?
@benshindel look, man, I’m not an idiot, I know how American government works. But ‘shutdown’ was under specified in the description until five minutes ago and the question was not obviously about the bill. There must be a reason every single news source is saying congress will avoid a shutdown if they pass it before midnight.
@NicoDelon yes because mainstream news sources are meant to provide common sense answers for the average reader, not to adjudicate the technical criteria of a prediction market resolution!
@benshindel but even your gpt answers are not unequivocal. You’re being awfully condescending about a question that was literally clarified minutes ago. Marcus hasn’t even weighed in! Who knows what he meant.
@NicoDelon Marcus doesn't control resolution of this market; Manifold staff do. And they have already clarified. Regardless, I think in general it's good to resolve markets accurately. And it is 100% accurate to say that the government shutdown occurred if the bill is signed after midnight, regardless of if it is a "meaningless" or very brief shutdown.
@NicoDelon both markets are resolved simultaneously, yes. It was discussed a few weeks ago with one of @dlin007 's markets on the election
@benshindel I know mods who disagree with this policy and I think it is wrong. I also think you’re way too confident.
@jack see discussion in the comments here: https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-donald-trump-win-20-of-votes-i
I know that on https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-mariahs-all-i-want-for-christm?play=true manifold admins did not automatically resolve it the same, they discussed the mana resolution separately.
@jack hmm interesting; well I've sold out of my position so now I can talk about this without being biased... and I still think it should resolve YES lol @NicoDelon
@benshindel found the author comment:
@Manifold actually initially resolved both markets so I'm happy to defer to them again. Mana market will mirror whatever happens in the sweepcash market