This market is to determine if the GOP will make a serious effort to overturn the results of the 2026 elections which are scheduled for Nov 3.
Examples of a serious attempt would be to send ICE or other federal troops to the polls, an effort to cancel or reschedule the elections, a refusal by the Speaker of The House to seat one more elected officials, a mob attack on The Capital or other significant government building or similar events. The "Brooks Brother's riot" in 2000 would be an example of a serious attempt but nuisance lawsuits that did not impact the makeup of the 120th Congress which is scheduled to be seated on Jan 3, 2027 would not.
This will not resolve until after Congress has been sworn in and at least one session of Congress has been held. This is entirely subjective so I will not bet and do not bet on this market if you don't trust me to resolve this fairly. Please ask questions before betting if you wish. This market might close early if it is clear on Jan 3 that there is no interference.
Edit: I will use the WSJ as my primary source but will use additional reporting from The NYT, Bloomberg News, and BBC if needed.
Update 2026-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For sending ICE to the polls to count as a serious attempt, it requires a deployment of hundreds of agents at hundreds of polling stations; a few sightings will not be enough.
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@SqrtMinusOne no, certainly not yet. Threats to interfere are only threats. If you read carefully they won’t even challenge if the difference in vote is greater than the amount of votes gotten by the extra Sullivan.
Can you specify more clearly "send ICE to the polls"? Does this resolve positively if ICE officers are seen at/photographed at polls in some deniable way, or if they attend one or several polling places as part of some specific enforcement action, or only if they are centrally ordered to attend and/or loiter around many or all polling places?
@SolenoidEntity it would require a deployment of hundreds of agents at hundreds of polling stations to count. A few sightings would not be enough for me to consider it a serious effort to influence the election.
I have updated my description to make it clear I will be using the Wall Street Journal as my primary source for this as I believe they are as good a nonpartisan and reliable source as I can find.