Will the S&P 500 close higher on December 21 than it closed on December 20?
Basic
19
Ṁ1271
resolved Dec 21
Resolved
YES

Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.


Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP

S&P Forecasting Dashboard


Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of December (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.

Rank-Award
1  | 5000
2  | 2500
3  | 1000
4  | 500
5  | 350
6  | 300
7  | 250
8  | 200
9  | 150
10 | 100

Good luck forecasting!


Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.

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Thank you, @ian I see you.

@Haws If you keep tagging me for nonsense I will ban you.

Jesus man just kudos to ur dono, fuck. Ban me if u want. I wont tag u again.

@Haws sorry, your previous tags have all been overly antagonistic and distracting. There was no indication this was not one of the same.

@ian My tags have represented my frustration with how you view my efforts on manifold. I hold no ill will to you or the team. I am and was upset, but I recognize when someone is a good person. Sorry it came off wrong.

Worldwide financial markets are a waste but questions about a fat cuck youtuber’s sex life are fine. Merry christmas

@DylanHarrison Manifold be like

@Lion @TeddyWeverka @ScipioFabius @Yves and anyone else that cares

hawsf on Discord

https://twitter.com/HawzF

Adding me on disc is the best way to contact me.

@Haws sent you a friend request :)

@Haws Did the same (at least I hope so)

Ok, I am going to do my best to not be overly dramatic. I have had a lot of time to think this over. @SirSalty also reached out to let me know his thoughts and an adjustment in view points from @ian. This being said, and I said this to Salty, this event left a very sour taste in my mouth.

I hope that moving forward Manifold does a better job at making their user's feel valued. At the end of the day, I want this platform to succeed. Some of you traders are absolute pricks though, just saying and you know who you are. Don't yuck other people's yum, because when we like something so much to cancel dates, post on lunch breaks, and resolve diligently, we will fight tooth and nail to express why you are fucking wrong.

This decision of mine has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with trader bonuses. This situation could have been handled a multitude of ways that wouldn't have resulted in me and other daily users to exodus off the platform.

I am disappointed with how some of the users I considered "friends" have handled the situation, and I applaud the ones who took a stand today. Manifold is a worse place without you all, regardless of what founders believe.

Ok let's get on to the donation of the ill gotten trader bonuses that everyone was so salty about.

(Includes winnings from @TeddyWeverka and @Orimos) I feel this is the most bang for the buck, most lives saved per dollar. 10K Mana was donated to https://manifold.markets/charity/against-malaria-foundation .

2nd, as a request due to suicide of family in the past, I have been requested to donate to https://manifold.markets/charity/the-trevor-project . 5k Mana.

3rd is https://manifold.markets/charity/givewell-maximum-impact-fund - 2k Mana

4th https://manifold.markets/charity/doctors-without-borders - 2k Mana

5th https://manifold.markets/charity/give-directly - 2k Mana

and the final mana goes to https://manifold.markets/charity/animal-welfare-fund - 485 Mana. Cus I fucking love animals more than humans.

To follow my lead, and spread some holiday cheer (Kudos to @Manifold @SG for a 400k M donation btw. That is very kind of you this holiday season) you can do so by following these steps:

1) Go to https://manifold.markets/charity



I won't be deleting my account just yet. But, I refuse to resolve my own questions in one final protest. Mods can spend time figuring it out. Get a taste for how much work everything actually took.

Please donate mine, as well. Thanks for all your efforts. I enjoy this a bunch, even though I have no idea what I'm doing.

@Jekylmeister I've already sent yours, but if you wait until this evening I will show you instructions on how to donate it yourself :)

Leaking DM (not really), just because it illustrates how this all feels for me.

I fucking love you all. Talk again at around 8pm ET.

predicted NO

@Haws Turn on Dark mode, it might change your mind. ❤

Look Away GIF by vilonious

@SirCryptomind this dog shit app flips back and forth on me

predicted NO

@Haws Yea Kalshi has the best app of them all, but I'm 95% Web user , not app.

Forecasters! The winner of the month of December and the biggest prize pool yet on Manifold! In fact, Manifold only gives Masters 3200 Mana!!! The winner is the great @Lion. Going down in Manifold history as being the recipient of the prize pool that was generated by all of you fine folks. @Lion is also a two time champion with this league! But... He did not get it easily, right behind him is @TeddyWeverka, our previous 2 time champ was on his heels the entire way! 3rd is @GoncaloM who crept up from middle of the pack to snatch the 3rd place prize! Your top 10 traders are:

1. @Lion
2. @TeddyWeverka (winnings to be donated tonight after BTC league resolves)
3. @GoncaloM
4. @Orimos (winnings to be donated - he would want that)
5. @SirCryptomind
6. @AdityaAkula
7. @Crypticat
8. @Jekylmeister
9. @ffn
10. @ByronHenderson

Managrams incoming to those who didn't ask to donate their winnings. Donations will happen when I close BTC later this evening and provide my final send off.

@Haws When winning feels like loosing 😭

Resolves YES 4,746.71. For the final time <3

@Haws 😭

@Lion I'm sure @SirCryptomind will find a way to incorporate the spirit of this question moving forward if he chooses to innovate.

For league payouts, they will happen roughly 30 minutes after the resolution so the ladder updates accordingly. I appreciate all of you!

Dis you?

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