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MANIFOLD
Will 'at least 3 comments' resolve correctly?
7
Ṁ130Ṁ1.2k
resolved May 19
Resolved
YES

This market is about the resolution of:

https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-anyone-make-at-least-3-comment

I will post a poll after the market resolves about the community sentiment of the market resolution. It will ask whether the market resolved correctly Yes/No.
The comment with the most likes will determine the resolution of this market.

This market is to make public the community sentiment about the resolution of the 'at least 3 comments' market resolution.

I may vote in the poll. I may bet in this market. If the poll is clearly being manipulated by alts I may discount those. This market will close after the resolution of the linked market.

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predictedYES

@Fedor I believe this should resolve YES.

2 days and 6 hours have passed since the poll was posted, 11 votes for YES, 0 votes for NO. The consensus is that Will someone post 3 or more comments? has been resolved correctly.

predictedYES

@MayMeta indeed it should, just got very busy yesterday.

@levifinkelstein my euro brain doesn't know how AM PM works, I assumed it was in digital time

@levifinkelstein I find it funny how the first only market I've resolved incorrectly is also in a case where people don't care at all and are actually super happy about it

The thought that you would have misresolved it to NO alone is terrible. Thanks for correctly resolving the market to YES.

predictedYES

I don't think replies are categorically not comments

predictedYES

I didn't specify how long I'd leave the poll open, but 2 days will be enough

Was 'at least 3 comments' resolved correctly? Vote on the comments below by liking them

predictedYES

@Fedor The market was resolved correctly

predictedYES

@Fedor The market resolved wrong, incorrectly

It got resolve as YES, and I believe, the poll will show, that it's a correct resolution.

If the market gets re-resolved by admins, does this refer to the initial resolution or the final resolution?

@A As I understand it, this refers to the initial resolution, not the (potential) admin re-resolution. @Fedor might've had a different intention for this market, idk

@MayMeta Yeah, I could see an argument either way. It makes a big difference to how well this market can be arbitraged with the underlying market unfortunately.

@A I think that the majority of people who will bet in this market or vote in the poll are mostly of the opinion that the '3 comments' market should resolve YES. Therefore, the probability that this market displays is actually "Will Levi (or admins*) resolve the 3 comments market YES", and we would have to be able to read minds to predict it with certainty. I don't see how any arbitrage is possible here, tbh.

* the choice is dependent on @Fedor's clarification

Ok, SOME (kind off) arbitrage is possible. If Levi fully liquidates his NO position, this will signal that he changed his mind, and it will makes sense to buy YES shares in both markets.

@MayMeta this market is about the initial resolution by Levi.

The purpose of the market is to aggregate community information about the initial resolution, and if people think it will be and was right.

Given that Sir Salty is going to comment a third time, causing it to resolve YES, I don't think anyone will believe it resolved incorrectly.

@JosephNoonan That is fair enough. Hopefully it plays out like that and gets resolved correctly.

The poll will be posted after the market is resolved, not before (as there is no resolution to decide on).