Alt determination market
6
467
resolved May 15
50%50%
GamblingGandalf
50%49%
StephenKing
0.4%
MrFring
0.4%
Chad
0.4%
Messi
0.4%
I'mWorthy

Will be resolved to all accounts determined to be alt

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Upon thorough investigation, I can confirm that @firstuserhere, @GamblingGandalf , and @BeScared (stephenking) were all created on the same device and have recently been used by the same device. Firstuserhere was the recipient of the referrer bonus of bescared. There were no other potential alts.

Firstuserhere has continued to engage with me in good faith and called, shared screen and discussed things in detail. He shares a workspace computer with his housemates who also use Manifold. He suspects bescared is an alt of a roommate who is trolling him. Either that or he has become trapped in what was initially a small, inconsequential lie, that has been blown out of proportion.

Itโ€™s impossible to determine the identity, but regardless I have banned @BeScared for being an unclaimed alt who has received warnings. Aside from this, I will be fining firstuserhere 2500 mana for breaking the guidelines by farming bonuses using Gandalf.

Upon learning that there are 2 alts who traded on his market, if @seaton wishes to re-open the market I will do so at their request. If not, Iโ€™ll leave it as is.

Letโ€™s please move on from this as it has already escalated unnecessarily.

In the future @Akzzz123 itโ€™s okay to call someone out publically, but please refrain from writing 10โ€™s of comments across multiple markets. We have temporarily banned other users for doing so in the past. I expect no more comments from you on this matter.

bought แน€20 of StephenKing

@firstuserhere if it is your roommate, you should compliment them for the most successful troll ever.

bought แน€1,000 of StephenKing

@Odoacre it's been infuriating really, because if they wanted to troll, it harmed more than made me have any fun

@DavidChee Thanks a lot. I am almost done drafting my email. I am still sending it to you because I suspect there are more alts - MrFring, Chad, Messi, I'mWorthy, justgivemeapizza, Charlotte, Kaytie Horvath, Beth, Globewanderers, swiftieforever to name a few. Sending you the email so that we don't have to discuss this topic further here.

sold แน€400 of GamblingGandalf

@Akzzz123 Dude, Messi is literally the roommate, and I'mWorthy is my partner, and Chad you yourself showed isn't an alt but another user

@Akzzz123 Utilizing my advanced language modeling, activity timing, and trading pattern analysis, there is significant overlap between @Mira and @firstuserhere . Their similar linguistic styles, synchronized trading activities, and matching periods of activity and inactivity suggest a high probability that these accounts could be operated by the same individual. However, this correlation, while compelling, is not conclusive proof and further investigation may be needed.

boughtแน€149StephenKing

@BeScared You r welcome

Account rules

  • Accounts impersonating someone may have their name changed. This means pretending to be someone you are not including individuals, groups, and organisations.

  • Creating multiple accounts (alts) is permissible under certain conditions:

    • Trading bots with a Pull Request for a bot tag.

    • A single pseudonymous account for making predictions you donโ€™t wish to be tied to you.

    • Any other alts created should have a clear indicator in the name or bio stating which accounts it is associated with.

  • Alts used for the following will be met with punishment, regardless of if you are abiding by the rules outlined above:

    • Abusing the unique trader bonus by consistently betting on your own markets with multiple accounts.

    • Abusing referral, signup bonuses, or daily streaks to funnel mana to your main account.

    • Attempting to re-distribute bonuses to othersโ€™ accounts

    • Using alt accounts as fake identities to deceive others.

    • Created with the purpose to manipulate the resolution of a market (eg. โ€œwill this market get more than X traders?โ€).

    • Leveraging balances of multiple accounts to boost an account up the profit leaderboard.

      • Holding positions which are then traded off to another account

      • Making trades with multiple accounts on the same market to manipulate the price/odds an account can buy in for.

      • Any other action that could benefit the profit of an account that involves a second.

  • Usernames violating the content guidelines will be changed to a different name until the user changes it to something appropriate.

  • NSFW profile pictures showing nudity or extreme violence will be changed to a default image until the user changes it to something appropriate.

I wasn't going to make this public but I'm worthy is my girlfriends account. She's an aspiring neurosurgeon and doesn't have much time. But this repeated harrasment has made me feel upset/angry, and I'd be happy to arrange a 5 minute call sometime next Friday if that's what will satisfy your curiosity.

@Akzzz123

  1. i have taken all your accusations in good faith and entertained them when I didn't have to.

  2. I've rewarded you for your effort for digging into alts. I've paid you bounty for it, because i appreciate the nature of good work you're doing.

  3. I've offered to compensate or loan you for the losses you suffered in the whalebait market which started this (4k mana) which along with the 3k mana you get from Marcus, combined 2X your initial losses.

  4. I've been polite and have provided correct responses to any claims you've provided.

  5. Your accusations have started to borderline on harrasment, when you spam unproven stuff on the site elsewhere, continue to use derogatory langauge when talking about me, and otherwise act in bad faith.

  6. I could've blocked you a long time ago but i didn't because i didn't have anything to hide and was incredibly surprised that you're claiming what you're. Over time, though, you've become more aggressive and attacking, instead of cooperating with me. You don't respond to any counter claims i make, any obvious flaws in your analysis or easily explained correlations. You instead continue to tunnel deeper.

  7. I've even supported re-opening the 100 traders market along with you because we've agreed upon existence of a few alts in that market. Since that's what you really want, why keep harassing me? If the market is re resolved to N/A, I'm fine. That is okay and sounds decently fair. Please don't channel that anger onto a specific person, me, as it feels quite bad/makes me sad that you're this angry at one resolved whalebait market (where i didn't even make that much) and are pouring energy into accusing daily.

  8. Mark Inghram has been active in this market. And has similar troll behaviour as StephenKing, need I say more?

@firstuserhere i didn't have to Co-operate, spend time proving ANYTHING to you over an accusation of 2-3 alt accounts. I didn't have to reward you, didn't have to promote a reopening of the market, didn't have to make any counter claims. But this is what I did, and have continued to act in good faith. I still only ask that you also do the same.

@firstuserhere My arguments are backed by solid evidence. Please don't label them as harassment.

@Akzzz123 They're evidence, to which I provide counter evidence. They're not "proofs". In fact, it's cherry picked evidence.

You say X and Y did this thing W, and using the same script Z.

Then you provided evidence for X doing W. not for Y doing W, not for X AND Y doing W, etc.

why not a free response. I wanted to add an entry...

@Mira sigh, I'm tired of this now, but sure, if you have an entry feel free to say here, I'll create a separate market on who is X really. I really don't mind given i don't even have all these alts. Atleast i know you wouldn't spam the site with nonsense accusations everywhere i go.

https://manifold.markets/eclair4151/will-there-be-less-than-20-unique-t

  1. ^ Another market where StephenKing trades which ends up helping @firstuserhere win. That was the only trade made by StephenKing on Apr 18. Further, the same set of users voted on that market too - I'mWorthy, MrFring, Chad, Messi, Charlotte, Kaytie Horvath, Beth, Globewanderers, swiftieforever, Richard Suxton.

  2. Additionally, both GamblingGandalf and StephenKing have used a script to trade on @firstuserhere 's markets and coincidentally both these scripts execute trades with a similar amount of time delay between them ~3.5 seconds and on running a statistical test, I could not reject the hypothesis that they are from the same distribution.

cc: @DavidChee

@Akzzz123 no freaking way ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚. I've never used gambling Gandalf to trade on my own markets using a script. The only time i used a script on gambling Gandalf was to trade on another user's' markets, and that was discouraged by SG, and i stopped it. You should be able to see that in the comment section of Gambling Gandalf. I've never actually scripted Gandalf to bet on my markets.

I have won many markets. You can point out 100s of users who bet on a market within minutes of me, and i ended up on the winning side. That's not a fault in me it's the nature of a large number of trades before market closes.

I am super skeptical of your claim that gambling Gandalf used a script to bet on my markets and would like some source because this simple hasn't happened. To claim it did, and then claim another troll happened to bet on one of my markets once during Gandalf trading, is a "proof" of it being me, is actually worse than accusations.

@Akzzz123 a lesson to you, always for robustness, pick data which both satisfies and doesn't satisfy your hypothesis.

Only picking data which satisfies it doesn't mean anything, mere correlation.

@firstuserhere using what analysis you presented, i could find examples where i traded and Marcus or Mira or any trustworthy ish user traded within minutes of, and claim they're my alt. That's just not how it works.

Comment hidden

@Akzzz123 1. These are made by Gambling Gandalf - the account that's KNOWN to be my alt.
2. These trades are all before the 22nd of April, before the community guidelines were updated and enforced (before WvM got heated also).
3. perhaps i bet on my markets with gambling gandalf. Okay, now what? Is it my alt account? Yes!! It's already known! Did I use it to funnel profits? 100 mana? 1 alt account is permissable, and I stopped using it for trading on my markets once the guidelines were clear.

@firstuserhere So are you retracting this statement?

"I've never used gambling Gandalf to trade on my own markets using a script."

@Akzzz123 yes, i am. I did initially submit a request to add gandalf to be added as a bot, and i did use automated trading strategies at that time. It was a long time ago, and I primarily remember doing that for a bounty Carson Gale had put up, and that's what I said above. If I tested the script on my own account too, then fine, i guess i did, i just dont remember it.

@Akzzz123 i want you to post a similar statistical analysis of StephenKing's trades. Because you claim something but then provided absolutely no evidence for it.

"coincidentally both these scripts execute trades with a similar amount of time delay between them ~3.5 seconds and on running a statistical test, I could not reject the hypothesis that they are from the same distribution."

Yes, please, provide the time difference and the delay., You've not posted ANYTHING to show a correlation, let alone same distribution, yet you claim a lot of extraordinary things.

@firstuserhere That's exactly what I have done, so let's look at the automated trades made by StephenKing on your markets.

@Akzzz123 So, neither the same day, nor the same time zone. Remember that StephenKing added my discord username on their profile and that's obviously not something i'd do if i were to conduct suspicious activity.

and the time-difference between trades might be due to responsiveness with the manifold's api.

I'd ask you to conduct the experiment with a clean run. Formalize a null hypothesis. Perhaps all automated trades on manifold experience this time gap?

@firstuserhere @Akzzz123 take a sample of my markets, make automated trades on them. I will provide the mana you spend on those, so that I do not benefit from trader bonuses, and conduct the same test. I have a feeling you'll find that your trading will match other automated trades.

Will you conclude yourself to be my alt as well?

I don't intend to waste my time countering flawed arguments, I will leave Manifold to evaluate what I believe is compelling evidence that StephenKing is your alt.

@Akzzz123 You know that the trading pattern is consistent because of manifold's api, not because of it being my alt. Go ahead and just change the script a bit, and evaluate whether your own automated trades also follow the same pattern. You've already spent HOURS investigating this, surely a few more minutes won't hurt to put this to rest conclusively. I'm providing you the mana for the test, and I'll be glad to look at the results.

@firstuserhere Incorrect.

@Akzzz123 ha, i say the same to your accusations