Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?

Question

Same friend mentioned here: https://manifold.markets/maozedong31415/will-a-particular-friend-of-mine-ge?r=bWFvemVkb25nMzE0MTU

Whether he counts as having cracked anyone is up to the discretion of him and any others I bother asking. The resolution does not depend on the gender of the person he cracks.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (3 traders, as of May 29, 2026).

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