Did this resolve yes? It says so here but on my portfolio it shows it as closed at 93%

@epicandSTEVIE It resolved, Manifold is just slow to update sometimes.

@makeworld Yeah xd

I now see the problem with my resolution criteria. Maybe I will discriminate against last minute swings in the future.

71,232 markets on 10/19/2023 at 9:47AM ET.

39,315 of those markets were resolved.

39,287 of those markets end with a question mark (?).

Limiting to binary markets where the resolution was either “Yes” or “No” leaves us 29,959 markets. (This also excludes cancelled markets.)

Of those 29,959 resolved binary (Yes/No) markets ending with a question mark, only 15,726 resolved “No” (52.49%)

@MickBransfield If more questions are resolved NO than YES, shouldn’t this question resolve YES?

@oh No being the answer a slim majority of the time doesn’t really feel like a truism or law

Then again the wiki page for Betteridge’s Law has studies saying it is true either

What’s your methodology for this?

@c0m I'm curious how Manifold betters deal with paradoxes.

@makeworld I can’t read, I thought this was about all questions on manifold

@c0m it is. The paradox only applies to this question, and so maybe is not relevant to the market. Up to the users to decide.

@makeworld Not a paradox if it resolves no

@epicandSTEVIE it's a paradox in the sense that the law did apply for this question.