partial arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-russia-invade-any-country-othe

This market resolves to YES if Russian troops or mercenaries paid by Russia attack anything in Moldova.

Pro-Russia elements from inside Moldova don't count even if they were paid/convinced by Russia.

Apr 26, 2:23pm: kind of surprised I didn't find this market on MM. Did I miss one?

Apr 27, 9:53am: Transnistria will not count for this market as Russian Troops have been there since 1992. Therefore, it is not a change in the current situation.