Which party will win the 2100 United States presidential election?
3
1kṀ188
2100
19%
Democratic
19%
Republican
13%
Independent / no party preference
19%
No election in 2100 (e.g. because the US ceases exist)
31%
Other

This market resolves to the party identification of the candidate who wins the 2100 United States presidential election (even if they never take office). An answer can resolve YES even if there are multiple parties with the same name at different times, which may not have any continuity with each other (for example, there have been several parties called the "Progressive Party" at different points in history).

Context: The idea for this market was mentioned in a blog post by Scott Alexander in 2021, in a section discussing the difficulties of using prediction markets for events many years in the future: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-scoring-rule-controversy. He wrote:

"This only works if information trickles out over time - as opposed to becoming clear just before the end date. Most real questions are a combination of both. So for example, "which party will win the 2100 presidential election?" might change a little over the next 80 years as (for example) demographic change makes one or another party permanently stronger or weaker. Maybe it could change even more if one of the parties collapses and is replaced by a different party. But most of the signal will come in 2099 when we see who the candidates are and how they poll. Problems where almost all the new information happens in the far future are a bad match for prediction markets."

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