Will I quit using Manifold by the end of August?
27
490Ṁ1616
resolved Oct 23
Resolved
NO

If I stop using manifold at some point and then don't come back for at least a month then this market should resolves YES, otherwise it resolves NO after my first activity after August ends. Any sort of activty on my account counts as "me using manifold".

Anyone with the power to do so is free to resolve this market instantly when the resolution criteria has been met.

As of making this market I estimate an 80% chance of quitting. It takes up a little bit too much time and I think I've gotten most of the value I'll get. Maybe I'll come back to it some day.

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Resolves NO @levifinkelstein

@chrisjbillington judging by the close date, it obviously means August next year

predictedNO

@firstuserhere Close dates are not resolution criteria. Judging by the creation date it obviously means August this year.

Judging the creator, it's deliberately ambiguous in order to be able to choose which was meant later in order to maximise profit for himself.

But that's against the community guidelines so if he tries to make use of that ambiguity, the market should N/A or resolve against him.

@levifinkelstein a comment please, or I'll just ask a trustworthy-ish user to resolve, as you've said they may.

predictedYES
predictedYES

@Stralor My comment here is 1 second before Chris' comment on the halloween market 😂

predictedNO

@Stralor hey there Mr Trustworthy-ish...

Anyone with the power to do so is free to resolve this market instantly when the resolution criteria has been met.

predictedYES

oops nvm

@chrisjbillington Levi did dip for awhile, sometime after returning from his ban. when was his ban?

@Stralor still tempted to just resolve NO

predictedNO

@firstuserhere he has been active in all one-month periods since market creation.

predictedYES

@Stralor I mean, he's literally fairly active these days, lets give him time to respond

@chrisjbillington ah I see the criteria. p straightforward tbh. the extra year is tradable resolving time, not misdirection.

predictedNO

@Stralor Boss 🙏

predictedYES

@Stralor if i rate the market now, who do the ratings apply to?

@firstuserhere I have no idea

predictedYES

@Stralor oh its nice that we can hide the review page now if we dont want to review it. I like this

predictedNO

@Stralor I think it's Levi. There's a bug report in discord about this, filed recently - don't think it has been changed/fixed yet.

@chrisjbillington there's almost a need for two reviews when it's a split creator/resolver like this

@Stralor but I don't need/want the rating from this anyway, so all's good!

You've got markets that will need resolving. You planning to leave them unresolved?

When I was considering (temporarily) quitting manifold and making a market about it, I was going to carve out an exception for resolving markets and clarifying resolution criteria.

predictedYES

@chrisjbillington "You've got markets that will need resolving. You planning to leave them unresolved?" I hope it doesn't come to that, but yeah, I'll have to think more about that.

predictedNO

@levifinkelstein …and you're currently creating a ton of new markets. That's a weird combo. If Manifold "takes up a little bit too much time", why not stop creating markets?

@__nobody wow, that's not very empathetic. I really have no interest in engaging with you if you're not trying to help me.

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