Will I have 100+ followers at market close May 10th
48
331
930
resolved May 11
Resolved
YES

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predicted YES

@levifinkelstein please resolve this market

predicted NO

Man, blackface was an extremely lucrative but for a long time. This whole Levina thing just wreaks of a privileged person punching down.

predicted NO

@JustNo *bit

sold Ṁ4,235 of YES

115 followers at 4:58 p.m. 115 at 4:59 market close. Please confirm.

predicted NO

seems right

predicted NO

I see 114 right now

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
predicted YES

Previous market resolutions were based on the number of followers shown on the profile. Isaac's MvW market specified method for ruling out alts. No such provisions here. It is neither warranted nor precedented.

Isaac similarly thought half of the accounts were bots / alts. Dont be an Isaac.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@XComhghall I'm just saying that IF there were >13 bots controlled by some hypothetical party that all follow @levifinkelstein, it would be possible to produce a sudden dip at the followers count in a span of minutes. I put some small probability (~1-2%) on this happening on some of the followers markets.

predicted YES

@MayMeta Sorry. Misunderstood.

boughtṀ10NO

@MayMeta You have seen the light

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@TobyBW Yes. I've looked at a random sample of 20 followers and 10% were deleted accounts and 55% were extremely sus: 1 bet, no comments, or a very weird profits plot. Although there are no intersections with IsaacKing's bots.

predicted NO

If I were Levi I would manipulate the shit outa those markets.

bought Ṁ900 of YES

There are 5 people who are following @levifinkelstein and are currently holding YES shares. There are 0 people who are following @levifinkelstein and are currently holding NO shares. The current follower count is 111. Assuming there are no bots involved, there is simply not enough people to unfollow.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@MayMeta Everyone who is followed & sees this should buy M10 no and unfollow. It's free 10x, almost no risk.

predicted NO

My risk is losing the 20 mana I put in on this, which is less than the amount I get daily from just betting. The upside completely outweighs it.

predicted NO

Message to anyone thinking about following last second or betting big on YES: the gains available from doing the opposite are way bigger. 30x your money.

sold Ṁ3 of NO

This is big gains to be made for unfollowing Levina.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@FedorBeets I will unfollow. If anyone else wants to make a quick 1000 mana, seems like a good plan.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@FedorBeets 14 or more people would have to unfollow. And a bunch of YES shareholders might plan to follow @levifinkelstein the last minute.

predicted NO

@MayMeta Then we get a bigger bunch of NO holders to unfollow last minute

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@TobyBW I'm down

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@FedorBeets I win either way, if it resolves NO I get a lot of mana, if it resolves YES I get followers 😊 ❤

predicted YES

100 inclusive?

predicted NO