Is fuel supply the root cause of the Air India 171 crash?
28
100Ṁ2783
Mar 31
96%
chance

This market will resolve to Yes if the primary cause of the Air India Flight 171 crash is:

  • Incorrect fuel mix

  • A fail in the fuel supply or fuel pump or similar such system

  • Improper fuelling of the aircraft before takeoff

  • Accidental cutoff of the fuel supply by crew

  • A maintenance issue causing a fuel supply issue

  • or some similar such fuel-based failure

  • Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve to Yes in the case of an intentional fuel cutoff by the crew. This is considered to be within the spirit of the question.

  • Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will be extended while awaiting a final official investigative report. Preliminary or intermediate investigative reports will not count for resolution purposes.

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@traders extending for 3 months while we await a final investigation outcome. I'd be very surprised if fuel supply wasnt implicated.

If anyone is aware of a final official investigative report that can close this please do let me know. Preliminary or intermediate investigative reports will not count

@Greyhawk will this deadline be extended since the final report isn't out yet?

@Hakari i have extended, thanks for the prompt

I would be looking first at what other system failures could lead the fuel switches to be cutoff.

How would this resolve in the event of intentional cutoff of fuel supply by the crew? The description only calls out accidental cutoff.

@MarcusM my thinking is that as accidental fuel cutoff is mentioned in the description, and the fuel cutoff switch in particular seems to be at the root, that this should resolve Yes.

I hadn't actually considered foul play when I made the question, but was confident in the fuel supply having failed for one reason or another.

As it seems the crew may have cut specifically the fuel supply (deliberately or otherwise), I'd say that is still in the spirit of the question.

e.g. if maintenance crew had jammed the fuel supply deliberately, it seems obvious this would still resolve yes. That fuel controls are mentioned makes it seem still relevant imo. I will retract my trades on this market, to not bias the final resolution.

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