Resolution criteria :

This market resolves YES if the European Union ceases to exist as a political and economic entity before Bitcoin becomes permanently defunct or ceases to function as a cryptocurrency network. This resolves NO if Bitcoin becomes permanently non-functional before the EU dissolves. The market resolves N/A if neither event occurs by Jan 1, 2051

For resolution purposes:

• EU dissolution: Formal dissolution of the European Union as an institution, or the effective end of EU governance structures and member state coordination

• Bitcoin permanent dysfunction: The Bitcoin network becomes irreversibly non-operational (not temporary outages or price crashes)

Resolution will be determined by major news sources documenting either event.

Background

Europe has suffered from the decay of the post-war international order, economic coercion from both China and the United States, and aggression from Russia. Europe faces very high risks, with plausible short-term dangers including a collapse of the US bond market and escalation of Russian military aggression against Ukraine or the European Union directly. Top risks identified by European experts include a bad ceasefire deal in Ukraine, US abandonment, hybrid attacks, and no lasting peace in the Middle East.

Bitcoin remains a volatile asset with highly divergent long-term forecasts. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years. However, the cryptocurrency market is incredibly volatile, and the question of crypto regulation remains uncertain.

Considerations

This question involves two fundamentally different types of risk: geopolitical/institutional collapse versus technological failure. The EU's dissolution would require either military defeat, internal political fragmentation, or economic collapse—scenarios that would likely involve global instability. Bitcoin's permanent dysfunction would require either a fundamental cryptographic breakthrough making the network insecure, or a coordinated global effort to shut down all nodes. Both outcomes are considered low-probability by most analysts, making this a long-duration market.