Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? (8000M subsidy)
Will Anthropic automate AI research in 2024?
Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?
Will AI agents be used to develop software commercially by the end of 2023?
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Will OpenAI release a search engine before 2024? [Read description]
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related?
Will a 10B parameter multimodal RL model be trained by Deepmind in the next 12 months?
Will A.I. Become Significantly Better at Drug Discovery in 2023?
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
Will commercial AI tutoring services become prevalent in the US by 2025?
Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?
Will AI be able to accurately do my taxes by EOY 2026?
Short Term AI 2.5: By January 2024, will there be a usable, general AI assistant?
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]