Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2025?
9
127
Ṁ578Ṁ335
2025
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1.2%
Song, T., Jia, Y., Yu, G. et al. Unconventional superconducting quantum criticality in monolayer WTe2. Nat. Phys. (2024)
0.6%
Amor, C., Fernández-Maestre, I., Chowdhury, S. et al. Prophylactic and long-lasting efficacy of senolytic CAR T cells against age-related metabolic dysfunction. Nat Aging (2024)
0.8%
Wang, J., Gangavarapu, T., Yan, J. et al. MambaByte: Token-free Selective State Space Model. arXiv:2401.13660 (2024)
1.2%
Grau-Moya, J., Genewein, T., Hutter, M. et al. Learning Universal Predictors. arXiv:2401.14953 (2024)
0.9%
Wang, L., Zhao, J., Du, Y. et al. PoCo: Policy Composition from and for Heterogeneous Robot Learning. arXiv:2402.02511 (2024)
4%
Xu, R., Sun, Y., Chen, C. et al. Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Model. arXiv:2403.15025 (2024)
91%
Resolution: In January 2025, after this market is closed, Manifold will be polled with the top 5 answers from this market. When the poll closes one week later, this market will resolve to the winner of that poll.
If one of the top 5 answers to this market is not an actual paper first published in 2024 it will be skipped and the next paper ranking paper will be included in the poll instead.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
49% chance
Who will be Manifold's 2024 Person of The Year?
Who will be hired by Manifold before 2025?
What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024, according to Manifold users?
Which of these Newspapers will publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024 end?
Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?
70% chance
What will be the most popular Manifold market at the end of 2024?
Will an AI alignment research paper be featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal? (2024)
32% chance
Will Manifold consider the same paper to be the most important paper published in 2024 when polled in 2025 and 2030?
24% chance
Which Will Be The Most Impactful New AI Idea in February 2024?