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Can resolve to no, Portugal have been knocked out

Portugal and Argentina are on different sides of the bracket, so the only chance is the final or the game for 3rd place. In any case this market should be higher than this one:

@egroj currently the probability that Argentina gets to 3rd place play-off is about 37% (prob that the win quarter-final 58%, prob that they lose next match 64%), and for Portugal 35% (win quarter-final 68%, lose next match 51%), so the probability that they meet in the 3rd place play-off is 13%, that should be added to the above market to get roughly 21% for this market