Who will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race in 2026? (Nov 3 general election)

Question

This market resolves to the candidate certified by the Texas Secretary of State as the winner of the November 3, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election.

If a recount, legal challenge, or delay occurs, resolution is based on the final certified result.

Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Primary election handling: Candidates who lose their primary will be resolved to No, since they cannot appear in the November 3 general election in Texas.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, James Talarico, followed by Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are most likely. See the market for live updates (66 traders, as of May 21, 2026).