Will the US sovereign wealth fund invest in Blackstone or TPG by 2028? | Manifold

Will the US sovereign wealth fund invest in Blackstone or TPG by 2028?

5

Ṁ1kṀ481

2029

38%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will resolve true if at any time a credible source reports money from the fund being directly invested in Blackstone/TPG directly, or a subsidiary of either. Will resolve false if this does not happen by December 31 2028 (including if the fund is not actually established)

*I.e., not through an index

**25 Aug 2025: will still resolve false if the shares are purchased directly by the USG and no fund is ever created

Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Direct Investment Clarification:
- Only a direct investment in Blackstone or TPG (or a subsidiary of either) qualifies as a resolution event.
- Investments through indirect means (e.g., equity via a Nasdaq tracker or index) are not considered valid.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Blackstone have the largest est. dry powder of any private fund manager by the end of 2026?

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Sort by:

Also this:

https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/what-assets-will-become-part-of-the

What if there is no fund?

@WilliamGunn see the final parenthetical

Does it have to be invested in the company directly or would owning equity count?

What if the wealth fund buys a Nasdaq tracker?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer good point. Direct investment is required, I updated the criteria

People are also trading

Will Blackstone have the largest est. dry powder of any private fund manager by the end of 2026?

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Related questions

Will Blackstone have the largest est. dry powder of any private fund manager by the end of 2026?

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy