Will there be more heads or tails after 100 days?

29

395Ṁ6546

resolved Dec 30

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

100%48%

Heads

0.6%

Tails

52%

As many heads as tails

Every day, starting from tomorrow September 22nd, I will flip a coin using https://www.random.org/coins/?num=1&cur=60-gbp.1pound and will update this spreadsheet with the results. This will resolve on the 30 of December 2023 to whichever is higher, heads or tails. I will not bet on this market.

Final results (Dec 30):
51 Heads
49 Tails

0 Remaining

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On Dec 31st, 2025, when I flip this coin, will it come up heads?

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What a nail biter

Update after 7 Tails in a row: I promise I'm not gaming this, it feels like the cosmic RNG doing its work to stabilize this lol

Halfway there, can Tails come back?

>>> math.comb(100, 50) / 2**100

0.07958923738717877

So prior probability for "as many heads as tails" should be ~ 8%.

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On Dec 31st, 2025, when I flip this coin, will it come up heads?

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