When will someone be able to recreate Google's Hands-on with Gemini video for the first time?
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4
Ṁ162
2026
11%
Q1 2024
11%
Q2 2024
12%
Q3 2024
12%
Q4 2024
18%
First half of 2025
18%
Second half of 2025
17%
2026 or later

On December 2023, Google published this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIZAiXYceBI&ab_channel=Google

It turns out that wasn't actually a demo but a video edit of stuff Gemini can (allegedly) do (https://techcrunch.com/2023/12/07/googles-best-gemini-demo-was-faked/).

When will someone be able to play the left-hand side of that video and get a response very similar to the right-hand side (by Gemini or any other LLM or AI) for the first time?

Similar is subjective but I mean it should be live and the responses should mean similar things (e.g., it should be able to know it's a drawing of a duck, translate the word, make a game, find the ball under the cup, make the connections, generate images for the yarn, logic and spatial reasoning, make the music depending on the images drawn, and so on). In case of a disagreement I will judge it myself and, because of that, I won't bet on this market.

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Will this resolve yes for every time bin in which this is possible, or only the first?

@robm Just the first time. I will clarify, thanks.

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