Will my home solar power system have a positive "net export" amount for the month of March 2024?
13
76
288
resolved Mar 31
Resolved
YES

Both March 2022 and March 2023 were "net positive" months (more energy produced than used).

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ110
2Ṁ25
3Ṁ16
4Ṁ13
5Ṁ12
Sort by:

Based on never net importing more than 30 Kwh a day and being way ahead of that net positive for the month, I am resolving this YES now on the last day of the month.

bought Ṁ100 YES

bought Ṁ125 YES

I'm going to bet YES again today but other folks please feel free to bet ahead of me.

Rainy days coming up but likely not enough to use up all the "credits". Even if the sun doesn't shine again this month.

bought Ṁ100 YES

bought Ṁ10 YES

Now you have all the information I do...

More and more negative... Historical data points to YES, but the preasant situation is definitely not trending that way.

sold Ṁ15 YES

I just sold my few YES shares

6 days into the month, rainy week ahead and negative by 19.2 for the month. This market may be overpriced at 89% chance of YES.

Cloudy, rainy stretch forecast through the middle of the month.

Mana to be made on "no".

Update so that everyone has the same info.... Negative as of now...

Rainy start to March. If this weather continues, this is pointing to NO

You’ve made the same market for Feb and continued betting on your own market with information that is unknowable to anyone else over the course of the month and that you never shared. You should either not bet on these markets or make it clear in the description that you will continue to bet with information nobody else can have.

@voodoo hi, Chris - I will make it clear that I am betting on the question. If you look at February, I provided updated information often that showed the question would likely resolve "Yes". With the updates, anyone reviewing the question would have information similar to what I had.

@mkalbert another point - I think many questions that folks ask about whether they will succeed at something have a similar issue. When someone asks if they will workout today, only they know how they are feeling. When someone asks if they will run their first marathon in less than xxxx time, they know best how their training is going.

@mkalbert Usually people doing that commit to only betting yes. or not betting at all.

@mkalbert You provided information twice and bet a lot in between without sharing anything.

Even if you did provide the information, it’s worthless if you do it after using it to bet. The log of your comments and trades is available for all to see.

You were the top trader on your own market that again, uses information that is unknowable to anyone else.

This is disingenuous and borderline sleazy.

@voodoo Thank you for your feedback. "Disingenuous and borderline sleazy" is a strong statement and I disagree with the tone of it. But I'll take your feedback into account going forward.

@mkalbert Thanks for taking the feedback. Sorry, I should have left it at disingenuous. I also meant to describe a particular action not you as a person.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Based on the example of 2022 and 2023, I expect this to resolve "Yes". I will update over the course of the month.