Basically will the North American market outperform the rest of the world in the next year?
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if EFA's total return (including dividends) exceeds SPY's total return for the calendar year 2026. Both returns will be measured from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 using closing prices and reinvested dividends.
Resolution sources:
The market resolves NO if SPY's return is equal to or greater than EFA's return.
Background
SPY tracks the S&P 500 Index of large-cap U.S. companies, while EFA is designed to mirror the performance of international companies from developed countries, excluding the United States and Canada. Since 2000, SPY has returned 609.4% and EFA has returned 326.4%. EFA returned 3.49% in 2024, significantly underperforming U.S. equities during that period. EFA has a higher expense ratio (0.32%) than SPY (0.09%).
Considerations
EFA has a higher annual dividend yield than SPY. Currency fluctuations will impact EFA's returns since it holds non-U.S. equities, whereas SPY is denominated in dollars. International developed markets have historically lagged U.S. equity performance over the past two decades, though relative valuations and economic conditions can shift year-to-year.
1,000