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MANIFOLD
When will the first human EXTEND artificial womb trial happen?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ15
2029
18%
2026
21%
2027
21%
2028
41%
After 2028 / not by close

This market resolves to the calendar year in which the first living human extremely premature infant/fetus is publicly reported to have been placed in CHOP/Vitara Biomedical's EXTEND artificial womb / "biobag" system, or a substantially equivalent CHOP/Vitara-licensed system, as part of an authorized human clinical trial or approved clinical study.

"Placed in the system" means the patient is physically supported in an artificial amniotic-fluid environment with gas exchange/nutrition support through an umbilical-cord/artificial-placenta circuit, rather than conventional ventilator-only NICU care.

This is about partial ectogenesis / neonatal support for extremely premature humans, not full pregnancy from conception.

Resolves based on credible public evidence, such as:

  • a ClinicalTrials.gov listing showing the study has begun and a participant has been enrolled/treated,

  • an FDA, CHOP, Vitara Biomedical, hospital, or peer-reviewed publication confirming first human use,

  • credible major reporting quoting CHOP/Vitara/FDA/hospital investigators that the first human use occurred.

Does not count:

  • fetal lamb or other animal experiments,

  • FDA breakthrough device designation,

  • FDA advisory committee meetings,

  • IDE application submission or approval by itself,

  • funding announcements,

  • preclinical testing,

  • simulations,

  • unrelated "artificial womb" concepts aimed at full gestation from embryo/conception,

  • claims from unrelated companies unless the system is CHOP/Vitara EXTEND or clearly equivalent and used for extremely premature human neonatal support.

If first human use happens after 2028, or if no qualifying public evidence exists by market close, resolve to After 2028 / not by close.

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The questions description is nice and specific.