AGI existence is determined by general consensus
Resolves to YES if general consensus of those who interact with the potential AGI is that it is AGI.
Resolves to NO if after 5 years (January 19 2029) it has not resolved to YES.
@SteveSokolowski Gemini certainly isn't.
I asked it to write a blog post in my style, after inputting my entire blog there, and it failed miserably.
@Leminspector Oh, looks like he just accidentally left the default one week from creation close time. Fixed.
@NateIO AGI is defined as whatever the general population believes is AGI. In the next 5 years, if the general consensus of the population believes an AI is AGI, this market will resolve to YES. They would have to use that specific term.
For example, GPT-4 would not resolve the market to YES because while some people were saying it was AGI, it never reached close to general consensus.