How many days will I manage not knowing who won the US election? (1 day=10%)
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Plus
44
Ṁ5569
Nov 15
52%
chance

If I find out Nov. 5 (or before) resolves 0%

Nov. 6 resolves 10%

Nov. 7 resolves 20%

...

Nov. 14 resolves 90%

Once Nov. 15 has started I'll resolve to 100%.

For knowing who won, a 90% certainty is sufficient. So, if see a trustworthy prediction market that gives one of the candidates a 90% chance it would be sufficient.

The same goes fo other kinds information, if I accidentally see a newspaper discussing the election, for 0.05 seconds if it raises my probabilities for one candidate having won to 70% it won't count, if it raises them to 90% it will count.

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I'm quite motivated to do this, I have two university lectures a week that are very important and I have to go to but other than that I can probably avoid leaving my place.

Also, I think, the program that I'm already using to limit my screentime (pluckeye) can automatically filter out certain word/block websites where certain words appear so I can block all websites where election related words appear.

How motivated are you to avoid this knowledge for as long as possible?

Medium amount of motivation. E.g. I was more motivated during my running a marathon market.

I forgot to say, I will never bet No or sell any of my Yes shares.

So you're going to deliberately try to not know who won?

@NathanScott Yes, because I have tendency to be distracted by it I, already don't have WiFi at home, or mobile data on my phone. So, often I only interact with the internet for about 20 minutes a day to answer messages/download music, podcasts, books.

I'm most cut off when I'm preparing for an exam, but the election will be during the lecture season which will probably be the main problem.

@justifieduseofFallibilism And you don't really talk to anyone else normally? Seems like it would come up in almost any conversation within the first few days

@NathanScott I do, but when I'm hanging out with a small number of friends I could ask them not to talk about the results. Or just spend 10 days only hanging out with the two or three friends who I trust the most to stay quiet.

Do you live in the US? Do you live in an urban area?

@shankypanky I live in Germany in Bonn (300.000) but not in the center of the city. The biggest problem will probably be university lectures.

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