If I find out Nov. 5 (or before) resolves 0%
Nov. 6 resolves 10%
Nov. 7 resolves 20%
...
Nov. 14 resolves 90%
Once Nov. 15 has started I'll resolve to 100%.
For knowing who won, a 90% certainty is sufficient. So, if see a trustworthy prediction market that gives one of the candidates a 90% chance it would be sufficient.
The same goes fo other kinds information, if I accidentally see a newspaper discussing the election, for 0.05 seconds if it raises my probabilities for one candidate having won to 70% it won't count, if it raises them to 90% it will count.
1,000
3.00I was just moving from one flat to another this week, and sleeping on a friend's sofa for a couple days, this made it a lot harder, I couldn't just stay home alone but had to interact with people.
I had Trump having won at 70% from some people's reactions already the day after the election, then at around 80% on the 7th and then today (the 8th) I was a lot less motivated because I was already fairly sure Trump had won, so I became less motivated, and was spoiled by something I saw online eventually.
I'm quite motivated to do this, I have two university lectures a week that are very important and I have to go to but other than that I can probably avoid leaving my place.
Also, I think, the program that I'm already using to limit my screentime (pluckeye) can automatically filter out certain word/block websites where certain words appear so I can block all websites where election related words appear.
@NathanScott Yes, because I have tendency to be distracted by it I, already don't have WiFi at home, or mobile data on my phone. So, often I only interact with the internet for about 20 minutes a day to answer messages/download music, podcasts, books.
I'm most cut off when I'm preparing for an exam, but the election will be during the lecture season which will probably be the main problem.
@justifieduseofFallibilism And you don't really talk to anyone else normally? Seems like it would come up in almost any conversation within the first few days
@NathanScott I do, but when I'm hanging out with a small number of friends I could ask them not to talk about the results. Or just spend 10 days only hanging out with the two or three friends who I trust the most to stay quiet.
@shankypanky I live in Germany in Bonn (300.000) but not in the center of the city. The biggest problem will probably be university lectures.