How many days will I manage not knowing who won the US election? (1 day=10%)
44
1kṀ5569resolved Nov 8
Resolved as
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If I find out Nov. 5 (or before) resolves 0%
Nov. 6 resolves 10%
Nov. 7 resolves 20%
...
Nov. 14 resolves 90%
Once Nov. 15 has started I'll resolve to 100%.
For knowing who won, a 90% certainty is sufficient. So, if see a trustworthy prediction market that gives one of the candidates a 90% chance it would be sufficient.
The same goes fo other kinds information, if I accidentally see a newspaper discussing the election, for 0.05 seconds if it raises my probabilities for one candidate having won to 70% it won't count, if it raises them to 90% it will count.
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