If I find out Nov. 5 (or before) resolves 0%
Nov. 6 resolves 10%
Nov. 7 resolves 20%
...
Nov. 14 resolves 90%
Once Nov. 15 has started I'll resolve to 100%.
For knowing who won, a 90% certainty is sufficient. So, if see a trustworthy prediction market that gives one of the candidates a 90% chance it would be sufficient.
The same goes fo other kinds information, if I accidentally see a newspaper discussing the election, for 0.05 seconds if it raises my probabilities for one candidate having won to 70% it won't count, if it raises them to 90% it will count.
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@NathanScott Yes, because I have tendency to be distracted by it I, already don't have WiFi at home, or mobile data on my phone. So, often I only interact with the internet for about 20 minutes a day to answer messages/download music, podcasts, books.
I'm most cut off when I'm preparing for an exam, but the election will be during the lecture season which will probably be the main problem.
@justifieduseofFallibilism And you don't really talk to anyone else normally? Seems like it would come up in almost any conversation within the first few days
@NathanScott I do, but when I'm hanging out with a small number of friends I could ask them not to talk about the results. Or just spend 10 days only hanging out with the two or three friends who I trust the most to stay quiet.
@shankypanky I live in Germany in Bonn (300.000) but not in the center of the city. The biggest problem will probably be university lectures.