How many days will I manage not knowing who won the US election? (1 day=10%)
44
1kṀ5569
resolved Nov 8
Resolved as
30%

If I find out Nov. 5 (or before) resolves 0%

Nov. 6 resolves 10%

Nov. 7 resolves 20%

...

Nov. 14 resolves 90%

Once Nov. 15 has started I'll resolve to 100%.

For knowing who won, a 90% certainty is sufficient. So, if see a trustworthy prediction market that gives one of the candidates a 90% chance it would be sufficient.

The same goes fo other kinds information, if I accidentally see a newspaper discussing the election, for 0.05 seconds if it raises my probabilities for one candidate having won to 70% it won't count, if it raises them to 90% it will count.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ184
2Ṁ122
3Ṁ58
4Ṁ50
5Ṁ50
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy