Will the Harvard Square EA office be open by March? | Manifold Markets

closes Apr 1

Will the Harvard Square EA office be open by March?

7%

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This question resolves to "YES" if the Harvard Square EA office located in the Abbot building opens before the end of March 2023, otherwise NO. I'm using my subjective judgement to resolve.

[CLARIFICATION 2022/02/28] Resolves YES if the office opens before end of March, including if the office closes after opening and before the end of March. Things that will make it more likely that I determine that it's opened include EA events held there, EA professionals working there during a normal workday, and official announcements that it's open.

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Juan Gilis predicting YES at 23%

Since it looks like the resolution criteria might be debatable, I'm selling my shares and won't trade further on this market.

Nikolabought Ṁ60 of NO

The spirit of the question is to capture whether an "EA/EA-adjacent co-working space" opens, and not whether "any space" opens, right? Like if the office space itself was unoccupied or subleased to people not working on EA related projects, but technically functional, this would still resolve NO, correct?

Nikolais predicting NO at 24%

@Nikola it's about the purpose of the space, not the actual physical space itself, right?

Juan Gilis predicting YES at 23%

@Nikola I won't operationalize too much since I believe that there is some optimization pressure being applied towards getting this to technically resolve YES, but you're basically right with your impression.

I'll be looking for general agreement among several categories of people (office workers, office manager, grantmaker, Boston EA community members) as a factor, official announcements, and the dynamics you'd expect to see in an office / coworking space (people work regularly there and have access to the building, events held there that are open to a not-tiny set of people, etc.).

Kaleem Ahmidsold Ṁ40 of NO

The Office passed its final inspection from the city of Cambridge today - we will have a certificate of occupation end of the week at the latest.

Simon Grimmis predicting YES at 6%

Anything public to share? @juan

Juan Gilis predicting YES at 6%

Juan Gilis predicting YES at 69%

@juan Did something bug here or do you intentionally comment with 0 text?

Juan Gilis predicting YES at 69%

@DavidChee This was supposed to show two related markets, so either bugged or I messed it up

@juan ok probably a bug, will look into it!

Manifold in the WildBot

Will the Harvard Square EA office be open by March?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

mvdm sold Ṁ3 YES from 8% to 7%

Nikola bought Ṁ100 NO from 9% to 8%

JP Addison sold Ṁ0 YES at 9%

lxnd bought Ṁ100 NO from 12% to 9%

Jeff Kaufman bought Ṁ100 NO from 15% to 12%

Nikola bought Ṁ100 NO from 19% to 15%

Juan Gil sold Ṁ17 YES from 23% to 19%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ36/Ṁ36 NO at 23%

Kaleem Ahmid bought Ṁ10 YES from 24% to 26%

Kaleem Ahmid bought Ṁ12 YES from 21% to 24%

JeppeKauffmann bought Ṁ20 NO from 22% to 21%

mvdm bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 22%

mvdm bought Ṁ20 YES from 13% to 19%

mvdm bought Ṁ100 NO from 19% to 13%

Derik K bought Ṁ60 NO from 24% to 19%

Nikola bought Ṁ60 NO from 30% to 24%

Misha Gerovitch bought Ṁ50 YES from 16% to 30%

Misha Gerovitch sold Ṁ186 NO from 8% to 16%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 8%

Kaleem Ahmid bought Ṁ25 YES from 5% to 12%

Kaleem Ahmid sold Ṁ40 NO from 4% to 5%

Nikola bought Ṁ100 NO from 6% to 4%

Trevor bought Ṁ50 NO at 6%

Chinmay Deshpande bought Ṁ80 NO from 8% to 6%

Trevor bought Ṁ100 NO from 11% to 8%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 11% (cancelled)

Trevor bought Ṁ150 NO from 16% to 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 16% (cancelled)

Trevor bought Ṁ70 NO from 19% to 15%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 19% (cancelled)

Nikola bought Ṁ175 NO from 33% to 17%

Chinmay Deshpande sold Ṁ8 YES from 35% to 33%

Derik K bought Ṁ40 NO from 42% to 35%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 42% (cancelled)

Aht sold Ṁ72 YES from 55% to 40%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ24 YES at 55% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 50% (cancelled)

Misha Gerovitch bought Ṁ90 NO from 67% to 46%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 67% (cancelled)

Nikola bought Ṁ30 NO from 73% to 66%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 73% (cancelled)

Nikola bought Ṁ30 NO from 79% to 72%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ10 NO at 79% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 NO at 81% (cancelled)

Josh Axford bought Ṁ200 YES from 72% to 84%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 72% (cancelled)

Nikola bought Ṁ40 NO from 80% to 71%

Nikola bought Ṁ25 NO from 85% to 80%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ42/Ṁ100 YES at 85% (cancelled)

Nikola bought Ṁ20 NO from 87% to 83%

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Will the Harvard Square EA office be open by the end of April?

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Will I consider EA more centralized at the end of 2023 than it is in November 2022?