juan avatar
Juan Gil
closes Apr 1
Will the Harvard Square EA office be open by March?
7%
chance

This question resolves to "YES" if the Harvard Square EA office located in the Abbot building opens before the end of March 2023, otherwise NO. I'm using my subjective judgement to resolve.

[CLARIFICATION 2022/02/28] Resolves YES if the office opens before end of March, including if the office closes after opening and before the end of March. Things that will make it more likely that I determine that it's opened include EA events held there, EA professionals working there during a normal workday, and official announcements that it's open.

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juan avatar
Juan Gilis predicting YES at 23%

Since it looks like the resolution criteria might be debatable, I'm selling my shares and won't trade further on this market.

Nikola avatar
Nikolabought Ṁ60 of NO

The spirit of the question is to capture whether an "EA/EA-adjacent co-working space" opens, and not whether "any space" opens, right? Like if the office space itself was unoccupied or subleased to people not working on EA related projects, but technically functional, this would still resolve NO, correct?

Nikola avatar
Nikolais predicting NO at 24%

@Nikola it's about the purpose of the space, not the actual physical space itself, right?

juan avatar
Juan Gilis predicting YES at 23%

@Nikola I won't operationalize too much since I believe that there is some optimization pressure being applied towards getting this to technically resolve YES, but you're basically right with your impression.

I'll be looking for general agreement among several categories of people (office workers, office manager, grantmaker, Boston EA community members) as a factor, official announcements, and the dynamics you'd expect to see in an office / coworking space (people work regularly there and have access to the building, events held there that are open to a not-tiny set of people, etc.).

KaleemAhmid avatar
Kaleem Ahmidsold Ṁ40 of NO

The Office passed its final inspection from the city of Cambridge today - we will have a certificate of occupation end of the week at the latest.

SimonGrimm avatar
Simon Grimmis predicting YES at 6%

Anything public to share? @juan

juan avatar
Juan Gilis predicting YES at 6%
juan avatar
Juan Gilis predicting YES at 69%
DavidChee avatar
SirSalty

@juan Did something bug here or do you intentionally comment with 0 text?

juan avatar
Juan Gilis predicting YES at 69%

@DavidChee This was supposed to show two related markets, so either bugged or I messed it up

DavidChee avatar
SirSalty

@juan ok probably a bug, will look into it!

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Will the Harvard Square EA office be open by March?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition