Will I stay in a job paying >=$70K for at least two months by Feb 2025?
Will I stay in a job paying >=$70K for at least two months by Feb 2025?
5
250Ṁ165resolved Oct 8
Resolved
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Resolves "YES" if I, Juan Gil, have worked for at least two months in a non-temporary job that pays $70K/year for >=40h/week by Feb 24 2025.
Additional details:
I must have completed two months on the job before Feb 25 2025
>=$70K/year must be the expected pretax salary
40h/week is the expected working time, and does not need to be verified to resolve this market, so any full-time position counts.
It cannot be an explicitly temporary job, so no internships or contractor positions count, but startups where I could stay with the company for a while contingent on success DO count
Insider trading encouraged, but I will not be trading on this market
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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