Will there be a Manifold outage this week? (Oct 8 - Oct 15)
15
198
330
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
NO

NYT hug of death?

Outage: site unreachable or practically unusable due to performance issues. Must last at least 10 minutes.

Date range is inclusive, so this covers 8 days. I'll go by Manifold office timezone.

I won't bet in this market.

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If anyone intends to submit evidence this has happened, please do so ASAP. I currently intend to resolve this market NO soon after it closes in about 9 hours, which I believe is Monday in the relevant timezone.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Half the markets I try to open right now are 500 erroring

predicted YES

Managed to get this one up by refreshing a bunch

sold Ṁ20 of YES

They're loading again now, but I estimate they were not loading for between 5-15 minutes. How do we measure this?

@Joshua Not sure. I assume Manifold has some failed request logging internally, but I didn't see anything publicly visible.

sold Ṁ47 of YES

I suppose we wait for a more obvious case then?

@Joshua Yes, unless some logs or something turn up that very clearly show this was a problem for many users for over 10 minutes.

predicted YES

@jskf def was a semi-outage

@jskf @Joshua There some other things I can check (no time now), but FWIW there has not been a one-minute period in which there were no bets in the past six hours.

@chrisjbillington Yeah I thought about checking for periods without bets or user events, but I think "site practically unusable" is not easily mapped to that.

@jskf yes, you could imagine people happily using currently-open pages, but unable to load any new ones, or something like that.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@chrisjbillington yeah my first yes bet today was made from the search page because the actual market page wouldn't load 😅