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MANIFOLD
Will my package be delivered within the window predicted on the tracking page (that is, within this hour)?
16
Ṁ310Ṁ624
resolved Aug 18
Resolved
YES

That is, between 15:00 and 17:00 today, Amsterdam time. (Window opens 17 minutes after market creation.)

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predictedNO

As promised (address censored):

predictedNO

Package is in the house. I'll post a screencap of the tracking page once it updates.

predictedNO

Now let's see if anything got damaged. I did notice there was a tear in the box.

A large van just parked near me 👀

I Want To Believe

@jskf That was freaking close. I sold and switched on the Van news.

@jskf its over

predictedYES

@jskf Congrats on getting your package! This was the most of fun of the markets you created.

Note that if the time window on the tracking page changes, this market will still resolve according to the window shown as of market creation.

@jskf In other words, if the window that PostNL gives you changes, it won't affect the resolution criteria? (I think the word "prediction" is kind of confusing in this context since you mean the prediction by PostNL not manifold market.)

@parhizj Yes, if they start showing a different window, I will still use the window they showed when I created the market.

@jskf Isn't it already 16:19 there? I'm confused by this line: "(Window opens 17 minutes after market creation.)"

predictedNO

@parhizj I created the market 17 minutes before the start of the time interval listed on the tracking page.

@jskf Ohh.. I see, thanks!

@jskf Is that time window is the same one you mentioned 16 hours ago? I mean, has it changed since then?

predictedNO

@parhizj I think the initial one started and ended 15 minutes later.

predictedNO

@parhizj I've been looking out the window every time I hear a car that sounds like it could be a delivery van

@jskf Good then I'll use a trustworthy CDF + manifolio to size my bet.