What countries will make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup Quarter-finals?
69
116
resolved Dec 6
13%7%
Netherlands
13%10%
Argentina
13%10%
Brazil
13%8%
England
13%9%
France
13%8%
Portugal
13%6%
Croatia
13%3%
Morocco
1.5%
Germany
8%
Spain
0.4%
Mexico
1.2%
Belgium
0.9%
Uruguay
4%
United States
6%
Japan
0.0%
Cameroon
2.0%
South Korea
4%
Switzerland
2%
Australia
1.0%
Denmark

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage

I will resolve as answers the eight countries that make it to the Quarter-finals.

Betting closes before the start of the Round of 16.

Notice that I will be selecting 8 teams as answers assigning 12.5% probability to each team. So you have to multiply probabilities here by 8 (12.5% means 100%) and divide possible profits by 8.

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Betting for semi-finals closes before the start of the first quarter-final game (this Friday):

Ez Ṁ1 profit

Guys, I'm terrible at predicting the outcome of a game

@DesTiny I'm like 2-5

bought Ṁ10 of United States

I'm ready for the US to absolutely SLAP the Netherlands

@DesTiny this is aging amazingly

bought Ṁ10 of United States

@Simon805b Shut up

Related:

bought Ṁ10 of Spain

@egroj uwu free money

bought Ṁ100 of Spain

538 odds here. Bought some to balance things out to match them - Brazil is still too high (currently it has implied odds of over 200% to make it) but there's no direct way to short it without just buying everyone else. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/

@ShakedKoplewitz yes, currently it is like a subsidy for the market

bought Ṁ30 of Uruguay

@egroj Alright, left some subsidy in there but it's broadly reasonable now. Too lazy to keep messing until it's exactly right.

@NekoHime and everyone else, be aware that this market will resolve to 8 answers, so a probability of 12.5% is equivalent to 100%, and you should divide all possible payments by 8

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