Did the US suicide rate increase in 2022?
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แน€450
resolved Dec 18
Resolved
YES

The rate in 2021 was 14.0 per 100k, this market will resolve Yes if the rate in 2022 as reported by the CDC is higher than that.

https://www.tfah.org/article/new-cdc-data-shows-4-percent-rise-in-suicides-in-2021

The report with the official numbers will likely be released in late 2022, so the market has a resolution date of 2023 to provide a buffer. The market will resolve whenever the report comes out.

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@jonsimon I'm probably going to resolve this Yes within another day or two unless you have an objection. The result looks clear to me.

@jonsimon What do you think? Some people are asking for an early resolution. I don't see the official figures for the rate out, but it does look like a Yes so far. I'll let you resolve it if you are comfortable or else just comment that you'd rather wait if you're not sure.

@Eliza From my experience "Provisional Data" Provided by the CDC is like wet concrete, more can be added to fix mistakes in reporting or data collection from Local & State Health Departments. I have found no instances within the previous 20 years where they have "torn up the concrete" and lowered its foundation.
(Hopefully that makes sense)

My sister and I both look at these stats every year, multiple times, as we do some small speaking events every year about suicide since we lost our father to suicide in 2008.

https://www.cdc.gov/suicide/suicide-data-statistics.html

bought แน€72 of YES

preliminary statistics appeared in my economist paper, 14.3 which is higher, news organizations are now fully reporting it:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/number-suicides-us-2022-reaches-record-level-cdc/story?id=105204012

CDC reports percent change by 2%+ when population growth increased less than 1% so the rates must have increased

This can probably resolve YES

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