Will Rishi Sunak's Rwanda Bill pass into Law by the end of February 2024?
27
369
858
resolved Mar 1
ResolvedN/A
Passed 3rd reading unamended in the HoC
15%
Yes - original wording (no amendments)
34%
Yes - an amended version
21%
No - completely defeated and abandoned for something else (eg scrapping Rwanda)
29%
Passed but struck down by the courts

Note: if it passes the house of commons (and lords) and is challenged in the courts but not struck down by the end of February this will resolve as either option 1 or 2 depending on how many readings in the commons took place.

Potentially a predictor of if he opts for an early election - defeated bill so goes to the public for support.

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Decided to resolve to N/A since there was no option that would resolve to yes. Might make a similar market and include a "still going through Parliament" option

sold Ṁ750 Yes - original wordi... NO

This market seems set for all options to add to 100% so you can't resolve all options no. There should be an option for still going through process.

https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2024/february-2024/safety-of-rwanda-asylum-and-immigration-bill-lords-committee-stage/
Next steps

Report stage, a further chance to closely scrutinise elements of the bill and make changes, is scheduled to begin on Monday 4 March

Fyi @traders, as mentioned if the motion is still stuck in parliament, all options will resolve no as none of them will be true. Really thought something would've happened by now but oh well

@joeym4 Ah, that’s a shame. I probably didn’t read this closely enough but I thought that it would resolve to “No” if it hadn’t happened by the end of February.

Reading it again, it doesn’t quite fit the definition of the NO option so I can see how setting this as N/A makes more sense!

@joeym4 The wording of this market is really confusing, then. I bought YES for "No - completely defeated...". This will objectively be true as the bill will not have passed in February.

Anyway, time to sell.

@FraserJHSutherland yeah sorry, I guess since it is quite vague I might just resolve ones where someone bought a lot of yes as N/A. Should've added a "still stuck in parliament" option. But technically it hasn't been defeated or scrapped so it can't resolve yes either.

What about "the bill is still going through Parliament at the end of February"?

@lisamarsh good point, would resolve as no to all the options then I guess. Should've added that as an option. We'll see if it's gets to it

@joeym4 feels like this will be the end result

@IsarBhattacharjee certainly seems to be looking that way, was hard to guess when I made it how long the process would take

It has passed the 3rd reading in the house of commons unamended, it still needs to pass the house of lords (and we will have to wait and see if there are any legal challenges before the end of February)

Note that it has passed the second reading with no Tory no votes, however, 37 (mostly on the right of the party abstained).

BBC News - Rishi Sunak sees off Tory rebellion in Rwanda bill vote

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67698672

This should increase its odds of passing, my main reasoning being that if it falls at the final reading the conservatives will look completely defeated and humiliated, having failed to do anything to tackle illegal migration.

bought Ṁ30 of No - completely defe... YES

Unless I'm misunderstanding what you mean, I don't think your first option is possible.

A bill can't pass the Commons unless it's had three readings. It has already had its first reading, the second reading is due tomorrow and then the third reading will take place at some point after that before it goes to the Lords:

https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3540

I think you're using the number of readings as a proxy for whether there are amendments, but that's not quite what that means!

@SimonGrayson Yes you’re right, can be confusing. I will amend the wording lol

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