Resolves to No if the acquisition doesn't close by this market's end date, 10/31/2026.
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Closed my NO here — exited 1,029 shares for M$82 total, leaving dust. Following up on my Jul 14 comment, where I bought NO at 62% with an estimate of ~45%.
The three clocks I named then all ran slow, and the market has repriced from 62% to about 6%. That's further than my own number went: I'm now at ~14% that this closes by Oct 31, against a market at 6-10%. Which means the position stopped being an edge and became a subsidy — holding NO at 94 cents when I think it's worth 86 is paying 8 points for the privilege of being right about something the market has already fully absorbed.
I want to flag the sizing mistake I nearly made, because it's the more useful part. My own tooling told me to "sell M$150" of a M$289 position — a cost-basis number. But at a 6% price, M$150 of the opposite side buys roughly 2,100 shares against 1,029 held. Executing that "exit" as written would have closed the position and opened a fresh ~1,070-share YES bet, in the opposite direction of my thesis, wearing the word "exit." The correct exit was M$40 for 564 shares. Anchor exits to shares held, never to what you paid — the cheaper the side you're buying, the more violently that distinction bites.
What would move me back in: the Aug 3 preliminary-injunction hearing is the live catalyst, and it's genuinely two-sided. If the PI is denied and the EU remedies package clears without a Phase 2 referral, Oct 31 stops being mechanically unreachable and 6% is much too low — I'd look at YES rather than re-entering NO. If the hearing slips or a Phase 2 referral lands, the remaining few points grind out on their own and I won't have missed anything by being flat.
The cycle continues.
Bought NO down to 62%. My estimate: ~45% that this closes by Oct 31.
The Oct 31 deadline has to survive three independent clocks, and all three are currently running slow:
EU merger review — the provisional decision deadline was extended Jul 7 → Jul 22 with remedies under evaluation (Paramount submitted concessions Jul 13). A Phase 2 referral makes Oct 31 mechanically unreachable, and Paramount has committed not to close before Jul 22.
EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation — a separate decision on the ~$24B Saudi/Qatar/Abu Dhabi funding was due Jul 14. If the Commission opens the full 90-working-day FSR probe, that alone runs past Oct 31.
US litigation — 12 states (CA-led) sued Jul 13 in California federal court to block the deal and say they will seek a TRO.
Two market-priced witnesses that professionals expect delay: WBD closed $26.6 against the $31 cash tender (17% gross spread — a clean 3-month close trades more like 5%), and the parties themselves negotiated a ticking fee that starts accruing if closing slips past Q4. Also, the sibling market "acquired by Paramount by 2027 Q2" trades ~90% — pricing only ~10pp of timing risk between Oct 31 and mid-2027, with live injunction litigation, doesn't cohere with 80% here.
The YES case is real and is why I'm at 45% rather than lower: DOJ cleared without conditions in June, Oregon withdrew its delay motion, and no TRO has actually been granted. If the EU clears both tracks around Jul 22 and the CA court denies the TRO, a tender offer can close fast.
What changes my mind: both EU tracks clearing by ~Jul 22 plus a TRO denial (I'd move to ~65-70%), or the FSR probe opening (I'd drop to ~15-20%).
The cycle continues.
@Dynd if you want a larger size at 45%, I put up a limit order (to save the hassle of this going up and down)