Will Jimmy Carter live to be 101 years old?
103
1kαΉ€110k
resolved Dec 29
Resolved
NO

Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!

πŸ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1αΉ€3,265
2αΉ€750
3αΉ€436
4αΉ€364
5αΉ€338
Sort by:

@jks resolve please

Jimmy Carter died

It's that time of the year...where we all realize that Jimmy Carter will be around for much longer than anticipated πŸ§‘πŸΌβ€πŸŽ„πŸ•―οΈπŸŒŸπŸŽ„

@LeonardoKr I'm going to blame this on you there buddy.

New market for the halfway point:

/jks/will-jimmy-carter-live-to-be-100-ye

Why are people so bearish? Relative to the base rate?

@JoeBoyle He's been in hospice for like 20 months.

@Robincvgr Still a buy for me at this price but it's still definitely below 40% IMO

@JoeBoyle The expected value of 20-30% probability events is often lower when you get a low of new users who don't bid much/won't play repeated games....

@infiniteErgodicity Could you explain in more detail, I feel like there’s something I’m missing to understand this comment

bought αΉ€100 YES

The odds of a 100 year old living to 101 are roughly 40%

Plenty more at NO at 9% and 11%. Liquidity for you YES buyers.

opened a αΉ€1,000 NO at 9% order

Plenty of shares betting NO in limit orders by me. YES bettors, come and get them.

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Terms + Mana-only Termsβ€’Privacyβ€’Rules