Will Jeff Bezos spend a week in outer space?

1kṀ371

2054

28%

chance

ALL

The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.

If Jeff Bezos spends at least 7 days consecutively above the Karmen Line (100 km altitude), then this market resolves YES. If he dies before this happens, this market resolves NO.

For purposes of this market, “Jeff Bezos” is only Jeffrey Preston Bezos, founder of Amazon.com, born on January 12, 1964.

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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