Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, for any calendar year from 2029 through 2034 (inclusive), official CDC mortality statistics show that the majority (greater than 50%) of all deaths in the United States (excluding deaths directly resulting from war or combat) are classified under "external causes of morbidity and mortality" rather than "natural causes" (diseases and clinical syndromes).

The market will reference the final mortality data from the CDC WONDER database or the official National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR).

Specifically, the YES threshold is met if:

• The total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapter XX ("External causes of morbidity and mortality" codes V01–Y89) is greater than the total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapters I through XVIII (codes A00–R99, which encompass infectious diseases, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory illness, diabetes, dementia, and other physical/mental diseases).

• Deaths directly from war/combat (e.g., ICD-10 codes Y36, U01.1, U02) will be subtracted from both totals before comparison.

If the CDC transitions to a newer coding schema (such as ICD-11), the equivalent category for external/non-disease causes (such as accidents, suicide, and homicide) will be compared against equivalent categories for disease-related deaths.

If final CDC mortality data for all years from 2029 through 2034 has been published (typically expected by late 2036) and the condition has not been met in any of those years, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

In October 2024, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a 14,000-word essay titled "Machines of Loving Grace". He hypothesized that powerful artificial intelligence could compress decades of biological and medical discovery into just 5 to 10 years, making it possible to "cure most human disease" within that timeframe.

To make this prediction empirically testable, this market defines "curing most human disease" as shifting the primary causes of death in the US away from diseases. Currently, diseases (such as heart disease, cancer, stroke, and respiratory illnesses) account for roughly 90% of all US deaths, while external causes (primarily accidents, suicide, and homicide) represent only about 9–10% of annual mortality. For this market to resolve YES, medical breakthroughs must reduce disease-related mortality so significantly that external causes become the majority of deaths in the United States.

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