Will Sam Altman's next Tweet be an announcement of GPT-5?

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resolved Mar 17

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https://twitter.com/sama

It does count even if it's not called GPT-5.

But GPT-4.5 doesn't count - it has to be a new generation.

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What will be true about GPT-5?

How many Tweets will Sam Altman make before announcing the next GPT?

30% chance

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

22% chance

Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025

64% chance

Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?

70% chance

When will OpenAI release GPT-5?

9/7/25

Will OpenAI announce an intention to *not* make a GPT-5?

2% chance

When will GPT5 be announced?

When GPT-5 will released?

17 Comments

42 Holders

120 Trades

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Thanks for the quick mana @jim!

By the way, unrelated but I was at a burger joint and saw a menu item I think you might like

bought Ṁ1,100 NO

https://x.com/sama/status/1769414392251363569?s=46

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 5% order

@Joshua fill my limit order?

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 5% order

@Joshua wow, 7% is such an absurdly big statistic! won't someone please bet it down 😭

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 50% order

fill MY order

bought Ṁ500 YES

@jacksonpolack later

like ... tomorrow?

@jacksonpolack whenever loans come in ill fill some of it

bought Ṁ400 NO

@jim dammit I looked away for five minutes

@Joshua if you put up some orders lower than 50% ill fill them later

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 25% order

@jim new market

bought Ṁ155 YES

@Joshua it's a dupe https://manifold.markets/jim/will-sam-altman-tweet-again-this-mo?r=amlt

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 20% order

@jim oh damn, I'll N/A

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 50% order

i'll take all of your loans indefinitely

@jacksonpolack that compact shall be your demise 🤗

How is this so high 💀💀💀

Arb:

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 5% order

@MiraBot limit order up at 5% if u wanit

People are also trading

What will be true about GPT-5?

How many Tweets will Sam Altman make before announcing the next GPT?

30% chance

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

22% chance

Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025

64% chance

Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?

70% chance

When will OpenAI release GPT-5?

9/7/25

Will OpenAI announce an intention to *not* make a GPT-5?

2% chance

When will GPT5 be announced?

When GPT-5 will released?

🏅 Top traders

People are also trading

People are also trading

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