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wut (2)

Wut

@JoshuaTindall Resolves YES based on o4-mini
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o4-mini

@jim but you declined to resolve yes a month ago when o4-mini came out or clarify when someone asked whether o4-mini counts...

@JoshYou that was April 6. O4 wasn't released until April 16. The market could have resolved then (maybe earlier if it was announced earlier, but IIRC it was released the day it was announced), but no one pinged me and the market didn't come to mind until today.

there isn't going to be an o4, they're not making any specialist models after GPT-5

Does o4-mini count? If so, this can probably resolve YES.

@jim Ping. Can you clarify what you would count as an announcement?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 hmm it's just a sama tweet at this point, right? Seems borderline

@TimothyJohnson5c16 like, he's just saying that 4o is coming. But he also said that gpt-5 is coming. Is got 5 announced?

@jim it’s possible to have an announcement of an announcement (I don’t mean here, just in general). Saying something will be released is not necessarily the “announcement” imo

@jim They've been talking about GPT-5 for months now, but I don't think it counts without some more specific details.

Bayesian's market requires some description of capabilities, which is I think is a better bar than just knowing that a model exists or is being trained.

If they keep counting by 2s and call it o5 how does this resolve?

that counts

@jim wtf