MANIFOLD
Will DeepSeek's R1 top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard?
18
Ṁ1kṀ120k
resolved Jan 24
Resolved
NO

DeepSeek's new R1 reasoning model is currently under evaluation in the Chatbot Arena. Will it top the leaderboard?

Resolves YES if R1's Arena Score is the highest on the leaderboard. Will resolve based on its score at the time of its first placement on the leaderboard.

https://x.com/lmarena_ai/status/1881411458678014215

https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

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bought Ṁ50 YES

I think it's a plausible longshot. It would be very surprising, but not VERY VERY surprising.

bought Ṁ2,250 NO

jim this wont happen

bought Ṁ75 NO

@Bayesian I jumped

filled a Ṁ8,000 YES at 10% order

@Bayesian why not

bought Ṁ2,500 NO

@jim Google is much better

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 7% order

@Bayesian i have dispositive proof that's not the case

@jim Is that another word for a jim vibe

@Bayesian just fill my order

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 15% order

@jim No u

does this just mean its "Rank*(UB)" is #1 (i.e. ties count) or does it have to be displayed in the top position

@Ziddletwix highest Elo

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