Which of the following will occur before Manifold's Daily Streak Ironman concludes?
21
1.8kṀ64172026
77%
GPT-next is released (OpenAI's next frontier model)
75%
Nintendo’s successor to the Switch is sold in the US
50%
GTA VI is released (for North American consoles)
39%
Ammon requests a required bet amount (1-3 Mana)
39%
Ammon pays at least the third place amount to all contestants
31%
Apple releases a phone with a folding screen
21%
China invades Taiwan
20%
Manifold announce that they are going to go defunct
20%
Apple releases a smart ring
12%
AGI is achieved (resolves according to Manifold's 'AGI when?' market)
6%
@snazzlePop sustains a major injury or dies while climbing a mountain
5%
A room temperature superconductor is discovered (and confirmed)
Resolved
YESJimmy Carter passes away
The Daily Streak Ironman can be found here:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/which-candidate-would-last-the-long?r=amlt
Participants must trade at least once every 36 hours or they are eliminated from the competition. There were 12 to begin with, now after almost half a year only 3 remain.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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