Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?
4
1kṀ660
2026
27%
chance

Where vibe-coding just means making bespoke software with natural language prompts.

Will only count users of platforms which are vibe-coding platforms like ai.studio/build, or users of broader software which are reported as using the vibe-coding features.

Resolves on my good-faith interpretation of the evidence. If I evaluate that the evidence shows that 100 million MAU is near-certain or certain then I'll resolve YES. Otherwise I'll resolve NO.

  • Update 2025-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Platforms with vibe-coding as non-primary feature: Will count if the platform (e.g., OpenAI/ChatGPT) provides figures on how many users are using vibe-coding features specifically, or if there is a reliable figure from another source. Without such breakdown figures, users of these platforms will not count toward the 100M MAU threshold.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Clarification: If the major model makers have more and more features for vibe coding (example OpenAI buying Statsig makes the most sense to me if they are going for a vibe coding platform) that will NOT count since they are NOT primarily focused on vibe coding?

@kamn if OA provides figures on how many users are vive-coding it would count (they have broken down use categories for CHATgpt before) , or if there was a reliable figure from another source. Otherwise, it would not count.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy