As the largest No holder, I have more value tied up than I would like. Lmk if anyone wants to buy some Yes at 35%-40%.

@PlainBG I meant No lol

@PlainBG Just sell it off incrementally that's what the markets are for

might sound silly but i think elon's made it impossible for this to happen by tweeting about trump leading in election betting

@Marnix I think it's got a lot harder, but we're still one unexpectedly good poll away from a change

Why do people think this is very likely? Trump has a fairly large lead at 8% and the polls seem stable showing roughly 3pt Harris lead nationally. What’s going to change? The town halls are going to cause that big of a shift? Assuming news events are mostly a random walk I think No is pretty likely

lead has now ballooned to 11% with just 21 days remaining. Barring a crazy gaffe/news event I’d be pretty surprised if Harris regains the lead

@Ziddletwix limit for YES @ 75% for a day, LMK and I will happily put it back up!

@Ziddletwix mathematically it should be at ~85% but I have a hunch

@jim Whale theory

@jim no because it resolves at the beginning of election day and we have other markers that say 75% chance neither candidate surpasses 60% on election day

@ChinmayTheMathGuy the gap was only like 0.5 when i made that comment

@Ziddletwix would you like to pay for some Yes at 35?

@PlainBG sure i put up NO limit order for some @ 35%

@Ziddletwix thx, I meant No but you got it

@PlainBG i'm down to exit this market at 45% if you'd like (put up a limit, fine if that's too high)

@Ziddletwix and same for @Tripping ofc

@Ziddletwix I'm feeling it's more like 35%

@PlainBG I’d do 35%, limit up, otherwise will just sell slow over time

Why %92? I think Harris has an edge because how polls have been weighted but %92 is surprising.

@DanW it's a very tight race. Small movements could bring her top