@Administrator I earned 515 mana on this question but my leaderboard scoring shows -892

@jim

Why did the UI tell me there wouldn’t be slippage for this sale but when it executed there was?

The markets are coming back down closer to Earth as the election approaches and everyone just looks to Nate Silver for what will happen. I think Harris will continue to rise into the mid 40s but at the current rate I have a hard time seeing her passing Trump. But maybe some crazy news will break and I’ll be wrong, who knows

As the largest No holder, I have more value tied up than I would like. Lmk if anyone wants to buy some Yes at 35%-40%.

@PlainBG I meant No lol

@PlainBG Just sell it off incrementally that's what the markets are for

might sound silly but i think elon's made it impossible for this to happen by tweeting about trump leading in election betting

@Marnix I think it's got a lot harder, but we're still one unexpectedly good poll away from a change

Why do people think this is very likely? Trump has a fairly large lead at 8% and the polls seem stable showing roughly 3pt Harris lead nationally. What’s going to change? The town halls are going to cause that big of a shift? Assuming news events are mostly a random walk I think No is pretty likely

lead has now ballooned to 11% with just 21 days remaining. Barring a crazy gaffe/news event I’d be pretty surprised if Harris regains the lead

@Ziddletwix limit for YES @ 75% for a day, LMK and I will happily put it back up!

@Ziddletwix mathematically it should be at ~85% but I have a hunch

@jim Whale theory

@jim no because it resolves at the beginning of election day and we have other markers that say 75% chance neither candidate surpasses 60% on election day

@ChinmayTheMathGuy the gap was only like 0.5 when i made that comment

@Ziddletwix would you like to pay for some Yes at 35?

@PlainBG sure i put up NO limit order for some @ 35%

@Ziddletwix thx, I meant No but you got it

@PlainBG i'm down to exit this market at 45% if you'd like (put up a limit, fine if that's too high)

@Ziddletwix and same for @Tripping ofc

@Ziddletwix I'm feeling it's more like 35%

@PlainBG I’d do 35%, limit up, otherwise will just sell slow over time