Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point from now until the beginning of election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
This includes if the percentage shown is equal but Harris is listed above Trump.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6,953 | |
| 2 | Ṁ6,716 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5,975 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5,034 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2,050 |
The markets are coming back down closer to Earth as the election approaches and everyone just looks to Nate Silver for what will happen. I think Harris will continue to rise into the mid 40s but at the current rate I have a hard time seeing her passing Trump. But maybe some crazy news will break and I’ll be wrong, who knows
@Marnix I think it's got a lot harder, but we're still one unexpectedly good poll away from a change
Why do people think this is very likely? Trump has a fairly large lead at 8% and the polls seem stable showing roughly 3pt Harris lead nationally. What’s going to change? The town halls are going to cause that big of a shift? Assuming news events are mostly a random walk I think No is pretty likely
@Ziddletwix limit for YES @ 75% for a day, LMK and I will happily put it back up!
@jim no because it resolves at the beginning of election day and we have other markers that say 75% chance neither candidate surpasses 60% on election day
@PlainBG i'm down to exit this market at 45% if you'd like (put up a limit, fine if that's too high)
@PlainBG I’d do 35%, limit up, otherwise will just sell slow over time