In 2044, will domain names remain an important method for users to interact with and access online content?
5
36
แน€130
2045
49%
chance

Warning: This is a highly fuzzy market; I welcome proposals for clarification!

  1. Direct Interaction with Domain Names:

    • Users verbally or manually specify exact domain names (e.g., "www.facebook.com") to access a specific online content or service.

    • Typing, speaking, or manually selecting a full domain name in a search bar, address bar, or other input method to reach a specific site or platform.

  2. Examples of YES resolution:

    • Users predominantly use browsers or similar tools where they enter domain names to access websites.

    • Websites and online platforms prominently display their domain names as a primary means for users to recognize or return to their content.

  3. Examples of NO resolution:

    • The majority of web interactions are based on fuzzy requests where specific domain names are not referenced, like "show me what my friends are doing" or "play the latest Taylor Swift song."

    • Entities, brands, or content sources are accessed by name or description alone without the user needing to know, specify, or see a domain (e.g., "Take me to Facebook" without any ".com" or country-specific extension).

    • Domain names might still exist deep in the tech stack but are abstracted away to the extent that an average user doesn't see, interact with, or need to be aware of them.

  4. Resolution Criteria:

    • The prediction will be deemed YES if, at any point in 2044, a significant portion of interactions with the web still involve directly using or seeing domain names, as described above.

    • The prediction will be deemed NO if the majority of interactions have moved away from direct domain name use as described in the 'NO' interactions.

    • If ambiguous, the market will be resolved based on

      • Industry survey if they exist; otherwise

      • Based on a poll. This will not resolve to PROB

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Note: I encourage anyone who feels like the description no longer reflects their intended bet to sell their position and reach out. I'll managram you any losses incurred. This offer is valid for 24h.