This question resolves to the name of the user with the most-negative profit on the market
Resolved
Jun 24
M$2,059 bet
Determined based on what I see in the UI when I go to their bets page, e.g. https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/bets. Note that this is not the same as "actual cash extracted from the market", as it includes what Manifold thinks your current position is worth. If no user has a negative profit it will resolve to the special "No user has a negative profit" response that I will create, because that's cleaner than resolving with PROB of every single Manifold user (they all have M$0 profit). If multiple users are tied for most-negative I will resolve to all of them with equal PROB. If the most-negative user's name is not in the response list then I will resolve to the second-most-negative, etc. If a user's name is in the response list multiple times I will resolve to the one that was added earliest. Adding a duplicate name is throwing your mana away. If you change your username and then bet your new username, I reserve the right to resolve to your original username. Jun 19, 2:06pm: More generally, if the most-negative user changes their username I reserve the right to resolve however I want. Jun 19, 2:13pm: If I am the most-negative user I will not change my username. Jun 19, 2:26pm: Realized the question name is slightly vague. I mean the most-negative profit on this market, https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/this-question-resolves-to-the-name. Jun 19, 3:03pm: If there is a user with "negative zero" profit (rounded to 0 in the UI, but with a non-zero negative percentage gain like -0.5% so I know they really lost money), then I will resolve to them rather than "no user has a negative profit".
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen answered
No user has a negative profit
1.2%
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen answered
@ian
0.0%
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen answered
@IsaacKing
0.0%
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen answered
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen answered
@Predictor
0.0%
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen answered
@MattP
0.0%
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen answered
jfjurchen
@jfjurchen
95%
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting No user ha...ive profit
I suspect I'm at a disadvantage here because as the market creator I don't pay fees to myself, so I can't just buy and immediately sell to reduce my profits. But I don't really understand how fees work, or how parimutuel markets work, or how fees in parimutuel markets work.
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting No user ha...ive profit
Figured out a way!
0
ahalekelly
Adrian is betting @jfjurchen
@jfjurchen how'd you do it?
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting No user ha...ive profit
@ahalekelly by betting so much on "no user has a negative profit"
0
ahalekelly
Adrian is betting @jfjurchen
@jfjurchen oh right, you didn't have to sell for it to count
0
jfjurchen
@GeorgeVii
3%
jfjurchen
No user has a negative profit
1.2%
jfjurchen
Mostly buying this up as an ante - the question is a lot more interesting when the aggregate percentage is 100% and not 10%. At low percentages I think the only way for Manifold to think you've lost money is for you to throw money away on fees.
0
jfjurchen
@ian
0.0%
jfjurchen
@IsaacKing
0.0%
jfjurchen
@Gurkenglas
0.0%
jfjurchen
@Predictor
0.0%
jfjurchen
@MattP
0.0%
jfjurchen
@JoelBecker
0.0%
ahalekelly
@ahalekelly
0.0%
ian
Ian answered
@Spindle
0.0%
General Comments
GeorgeVii
> Adding a duplicate name is throwing your mana away. Hmm, is it? Since it rebalances all the probability of the other bets it could push someone into the negative. Will you discount this or still just go off what manifold ui says?
0
jfjurchen
@GeorgeVii I will go off what the Manifold UI says when resolving. I guess you're right that it could be tactically worthwhile for reducing someone's profit, but I will never resolve to your duplicate.
0
jfjurchen
Also just as a matter of etiquette I would request that, if you do want to burn money in this market, you do it by buying up "invalid username" or something. That way people don't get confused and I don't have to add a comment saying "I won't resolve to this dupe".
0